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Technical Analysis Simplified

The objective of this website is to introduce simple mechanisms for trading based on Technical Analysis. Understanding the market psychology, following a trading system consistently, entering and exiting trades in a disciplined manner all is essential for making consistent profits


Dear Readers, this is a purely non-profit initiative and will never become a paid site. Primary objective is to share as much information as possible from real life trading experience to help small traders earn consistently in the market.

Thursday 28 February 2013

Queries from Readers–Answered here

Due to many people writing to me on individual stock analysis, I am opening a new section here to answer reader’s questions. If you have any questions, please leave the question as a comment or in the chat box. Depending on my time availability, I will respond to your questions.

Today’s trades - 3 Winning trades.

Readers, today was a volatile and news driven day due to budget. However my pre-market analysis yesterday helped gain some good profits today.
Read my pre-market analysis here

Trade 1 – L&T Buy Success

L&T consolidated in the morning and  there was a breakout above days high. I alerted the readers here. Could get small profits since the stock started reversing back.


Trade 2 – Tata Steel Sell – Success

Tata Steel – In my analysis yesterday, I had written that Tata Steel was negative below the level 354. It was also the daily pivot. As soon as the stock went below 354, I alerted my readers here and entered the short. Tata Steel fell below 346 which was another selling opportunity and I kept holding the stock till it started bouncing back.

The exact support band which I wrote in my Tata Steel update reflected in todays trade. Read my earlier post here

Tata Steel–Falls as per prediction

Tata Steel, moves exactly as per the predictions. Yesterday, I showed the levels here, below 354 it was a sell.The stock crashed  to the support of 346.
Read my post on levels here:
Again I alerted here , below 346 there will be further fall. Stock has further fallen down. Next stop is 335, then 328 in next few sessions.
Going forward 346 will be strong resistance, then 354.
To see previous posts, click here.

Tata Steel - Below 346, heavy fall expected

Tata Steel Below 354 - Sell for Intraday

L&T - Intraday Update

L&T, once again if days high is crossed, the stock will shoot up. Those who have not entered until now can consider entering above days high.

L&T - Risky Trade

L&T has crossed the days high and is sustaining. Likely to move up further. Being budget day, it could react sharply on news either side, be careful.

Which stocks to trade 28 Feb - Budget Day and Expiry

Readers, 28 Feb is both budget and expiry day and be ready for high volatility  Also it is impossible to predict tomorrows market. So I recommend readers not to trade heavily tomorrow since SLs will be hit on both sides. Those who still want to trade, please keep 1 open position at a time.

1. Tata Steel - Go long above 354 maintaining strict SL.
2. L&T - Go long  if the stock is above 1400, SL will be 1380. Below 1380, L&T is a sell.

I would like to avoid trading in banking stocks tomorrow, though I will have SBI and ICICI in my watchlist.

What to do in case the market is choppy and whipsawing ?


What to do in case of a rally ?

Pick up any of the pivotal stocks which is consolidating after an upmove and tending to breakout from the consolidation and go long. L&T could be a good candidate for this.

What to do in case of a sell off ?

Pick up any of the pivotal stocks which is consolidating after a downmove and tending to breakdown from the consolidation and go short.

Some of my favorite pivotal stocks are - Tata Steel, ICICI Bank, SBI, L&T, Reliance and Infosys. Wish you good luck.

Today’s Trades–27Feb–2 winning and 1 losing trade

Today , I did three trades. Could end up with good profits since market rallied. All were intraday buys.

Trade 1- ICICI Bank Buy – Success

Bought ICICI on days high cross as per my alert to readers. Market was volatile, however SL was not hit, it was a very rewarding trade.

Tata Steel- Update

Yesterday I wrote about Tata Steel here and the target of 346. Today Tata Steel hit 346 levels exactly and bounced back to cross the resistance of 354. I entered into buying position today above 355, since this major resistance was broken with volumes. As long as 354 is held , from now on Tata Steel will remain positive. 346 will once again be a very strong support. Below that it could go up to 335, 326 as indicated before.

Wednesday 27 February 2013

Tata Steel - 346 Support touched today


Today Tata Steel fell down from 354 which acted as a big resistance in the first half of the day. The stock touched the support level of 346 today and made a sharp bounce back. I have been writing about this level , in my last two posts. Now the resistance is 354. If Tata Steel holds 354, then it will further move up.

L&T - Sell for Intraday

L&T is a sell below 1380. If days low is crossed, then it is a strong sell. 

SBI, ICICI - Crossing days high

SBI and ICICI - Crossing day's high. Buy for Intraday.

Which stocks to trade–27 Feb

Dear Readers
Today Indian markets crashed due to negative news from Europe and lackluster rail budget. When I write this , US market is rallying due to a positive view from  Bernanke on easing measures in US.
Todays Sector analysis shows that all sectors except IT are negative in both hourly and daily charts. So tomorrow, I will try to trade IT from positive side. Will check if banks are bouncing back and go long on SBI and ICICI Bank. Both these stocks are negative in both daily and hourly charts so, we should book profits on longs quickly and sell on rise.
Tata Steel is still negative and I will look for opportunities to sell on rise.

Todays Trades 26 Feb–3 winning trades.

Dear Readers, today I had 3 successful trades. Though market opened gap down, both ICICI and Tata Steel gave me good selling opportunities. Read below.

1. Trade 1 – Tata Steel Sell – Success

In my pre-market analysis yesterday, I had indicated 360 as the critical support, the stock opened below 360 and sustained. On crossing the days low, I entered a short. SL was days high. I alerted my readers here during the day.
In 5 min chart, 5 MA, never crossed 20 MA. No single candle was fully above the 20 MA. So I maintained short and covered at end of the day. This is a good example of a downward trending stock, where we should maximise  the gain by following the trend.

Tuesday 26 February 2013

ICICI–30 points fall from the point of alert

Readers, ICICI hit 1050 levels once 1085 was broken. I have been writing about the weakness of ICICI in my last 2-3 days. Looks like as of now the downmove will be limited to 1045-50 levels. At the time of writing this post ,the stock is tending to bounce back. Those who are in profits, keep a trailing stop loss.

ICICI – Critical Support Broken

Tata Steel–10 points fall from the point of alert

Readers, Tata Steel has crashed to below 350 levels once the support of 360 was broken. The stock is moving exactly as per
the chart indications which I was covering from 400 levels onwards. Next target for Tata Steel is 346 and if that is broken
Please read my earlier posts on Tata Steel here.
Tata Steel – 30 points fall from the point of alert.
Tata Steel – Critical Support Broken.

ICICI Bank–Critical Support Broken

ICICI Bank has crossed below the support 1090-85 which I have been writing here during the past few days. Now the next stop will be 1060, then 1048.

To read my earlier posts click here

Tata Steel–Crossed below 360. Now 355-346

Tata Steel moving down as expected. 360 levels broken convincingly and next stop would be 346 in next few days. Do not carry overnight positions due to budget announcements.
Please read my earlier posts on Tata Steel here.

Which stocks to trade 26 Feb

Yesterday, I posted my views here in pre-market calls and below is the update.

Review of calls on 25 Feb

1. Tata Steel – Range bound between 360 and 368.
2. L&T – Sell below 1430 was my view, stock hit 1400 levels.
3. ICICI Bank – Stock bounced from the levels of 1090-85. This is still a support.
4. Bharti Airtel – Ended in negative. No long or short possible as per todays chart position.
5. DLF – Ended in negative, it is bearish now. No longs is recommended.
6. Wipro – Above 421, the stock hit 426. Still positive.

Trading Strategy for 26 Feb.

Tata Steel – Please read here for tomorrows trading strategy
L&T – Is a clear sell as long as it is below 1415 on Tuesday.
ICICI Bank – Still negative, stock is showing some support t 1090-85 levels, no convincing breakdown. Once this level is broken, please short.

Sector View – 26 Feb

IT Sector is strong in hourly and daily charts. Wipro and Infosys could be traded on long side ONLY if market recovers after gap down.
Pharma Sector is looking very strong. Ranbaxy may be traded from the long side tomorrow ONLY if market recovers after gap down.

Tata Steel–Range 360-368 held today

I had given my views here on Tata Steel, the stock was stuck today in the exact range which I wrote in my pre-market calls.
By now you would know how to trade, 368 is resistance and 360 is support. Selling at resistance and buying at support for risky traders. For conservative traders, the strategy could be to buy a breakout above 368 or sell below 360.
Please read all previous posts on Tata Steel to understand the stock behavior well and trade.
If I look at the intraday volumes, the volumes were up at the time of close and stock bounced from 360.
Tomorrow, Tata Steel is positive between 364, will give good upmove above 368.
Below 364 negative and crossing 360 with volumes is a sell.

Monday 25 February 2013

Wipro - Ready to move up further


As you would have read in my sector analysis here, IT sector is strong buy in both hourly and daily charts. So I looked for suitable IT stocks to buy. Wipro is one which gives good indications of buy in the charts.

Daily Chart Observations.

1. MACD gave a bullish crossover in daily charts.
2. RSI crossed 50 from below.
3. SSTO is positive with a buy hook in the recent past.
4. Fast Stochastics is moving up, indicating further upmove.
5. Stock rose on higher volumes on Friday.

Buy only above 421-422, which is yesterday's high and also a previous high in daily charts.

Tata Steel – Understanding The Psychology

I have been maintaining bearish view on Tata Steel for several weeks now and the stock has fallen from 400 to 364. Now what will happen. Though I maintain bearish view, there is a bit of indecisiveness in the stocks daily chart.

This is indicated by the Doji (almost equal legged) formed in daily charts on 22 Feb. What does this mean ? On that trading day, bears tried to bring the stock down to 360 levels, however they were not successful. Bulls tried to take the stock above 368, that was also not successful. Hence the opening and closing prices on Friday were almost the same.

Even if you are day trading, it is important to view the big picture In the longer term charts, a low was formed in November at 360. Friday’s low was also at this level. So this level is very important. Below 360, 346 is the target. If 346 is crossed, then 335. Please note these levels in your trading diary.

Daily pivot point is at around 364, which again is not giving any pointers for Mondays trades. So Technically Tata Steel may be traded above 368 for long and below 360 with good volumes and sustain for a short.
If you are a risky trader a short may be considered if Tata Steel reverses from 368-70 levels.
As you can see in the chart, this band of 360-368 is a repeat of November low, which is another interesting observation. (indicated by circle in the chart). Action was seen in this band in September 2012 and also in Jan.

This analysis is just psychology and simple with no indicators !!

Which stocks to trade on Feb 25 DLF, Wipro, Tata Steel, L&T, SBI

Next week is a very  tricky week to trade due to the budget announcements on Wednesday and Thursday. Typically my trading style avoids days where news are there. So we may trade cautiously on Mon, Tue with no overnight positions. Wednesday and Thursday we may trade limited since the market or individual stocks could see violent price movements.

At the moment, I am not expecting a major upmove or downmove after the budget, but I expect that the markets react little bit on either side and consolidate.

On Monday and Tuesday, some of the stocks like SBI, L&T could start making small upmoves though overall trend is negative. My suggestion is to wait and watch after market opening and decide to go short or long.

Nifty View for week starting 25 Feb

Nifty is clearly negative in weekly and daily charts. In weekly charts MACD is negative and Nifty is resting at 20 MA. In daily charts, Nifty is below 20 and 50 DMA and we saw bearish crossover of 20 below 50. Trend is negative for short term as per charts.

Below is how different sectors look like after Friday’s trades.

IT sector is the strongest with both hourly and daily charts. Pharma is the next one which is strong. Infra has turned buy in hourly charts with stocks like DLF in the positive.

Saturday 23 February 2013

Todays Trades–22 Feb. 3 winning & 1 losing trade

Readers, As mentioned in my pre-market analysis here, trading today was quite tricky. However the day ended with profits for me. I was also able to provide buy/sell alerts real time to my readers here.

1. Trade 1 – Tata Steel Sell – Success

I alerted here to sell Tata Steel below previous days low. Tata Steel gave two points below days low, but bounced back only to face resistance at the critical level 368.  Though Tata Steel went down, started moving up after hitting 360, this will be the next support going forward.

2. Trade 2 – SBI Sell – Loss

SBI went below the critical level of 2200 and stayed there, technically was a good selling point, however the stock bounced back. Sensing the first danger, I covered immediately after the MACD gave positive crossover in 5 min chart. 2190 will be a good support going forward.

3. Trade 3 – L&T Buy – Success

As per my alert to the readers, I bought L&T above 1430, got 10 points. L&T quickly reversed its gains and continued to face resistance at 1440-42. Going forward this will be the resistance for the stock.

4. Trade 4 – ICICI Bank – Success

1090 was the critical turning point and the daily pivot as indicated in my pre-market analysis. I also alerted the readers to buy the stock above 1090. I was able to book 6 points. I kept an SL here at the last support of the day, and it was never hit. For Mondays trade 1085-90 will be the critical support.

Friday 22 February 2013

SBI–Below crucial level 2200 Short

SBI is below 2200 and staying there. Negative for stock short for intraday / short term.

Tata Steel is a buy for Intraday above 368

As I had written in my pre-market analysis, 368 is a critical level, if crossed and sustained. Tata Steel will shoot up.

ICICI - Buy above 1090

ICICI will move up due to short covering if 1090 is crossed and sustained.
Buy on breakout.

L&T is a buy for intraday above 1430

If L&T sustains above 1430, it will shoot up. Look at the chart and trade

Tata Steel–Sell below previous days low

Tata Steel is a sell only if it goes below the previous days low and stays there. As indicated in my pre-market post here, 368 is the critical resistance , from there the stock has reversed.

Which stocks to trade–22 Feb : Short on rise Tata Steel, L&T , SBI, ICICI Bank

Dear Readers, As I have been writing here in the past few days, Nifty and many pivotal stocks, L&T, Tata Steel, SBI, Reliance, ICICI Bank all have fallen significantly. This market is clearly sell on rise, until we see a sustained upmove.
All sectors except IT are in sell mode in daily and hourly charts. Will there be a bounce back ? A possibility cannot be ruled out. Hence wait for atleast 20-30 minutes after market opening to start trading.
In case of a bounce back, short once the charts give negative signals like MACD bearish cross in 5 min charts. Look at days high, previous days high/low to take decisions.

Which stocks to trade ?

Todays Trades 21 Feb 2013

Readers, today was a successful day overall. Based on my pre-market analysis here, I decided to go short on Tata Steel, SBI and ICICI Bank.

1. ICICI Bank Successful Sell

ICICI Bank was consolidating below the 100 DMA and then moved down heavily. Entered at the breakout of consolidation.

Thursday 21 February 2013

Tata Steel–30 points fall from the point of alert.

Readers, I had been writing about Tata Steel from several weeks before about the imminent correction. This was based on simple technical analysis. Tata Steel continues its downward journey. Continues to be weak. For positional traders, the stock could go up to360. 388 is a major hurdle to cross.
Please read my earlier post on Tata Steel
Tata Steel Critical Support broken.

Buy HCL Tech on breakout

HCL Tech consolidating at days high. Buy on breakout.

Which stocks to trade –21 Feb, Short SBI & Tata Steel.

Nifty is mildly bullish. In hourly charts, Nifty is still in buy mode, but daily charts is in Sell mode. US Markets have ended weak and Nifty could be weak as well for Thursday.
See the sector analysis below. Only IT seems to be very strong. In case you wish to go long for Intraday, select Infosys and HCL Tech.
Banking , particularly PSU Banks are weak. SBI and ICICI Bank appear to be weak.
ICICI Bank is showing a support and bounce back trend. But if the immediate support of 100 DMA in daily charts is broken, then go short blindly.
SBI is likely to move down further. RSI in daily charts of SBI is showing a resistance at 30 levels. (Why RSI can indicate a resistance ? ). Fast stochastics looks like pointing downwards.
Please read my previous posts on SBI here. SBI Continues its downward journey
Tata Steel is again weak. One of my recent favorite stocks for short sell, I covered several articles here about its downfall.
Tata Steel continues its downmove
On 20 Feb, Tata Steel tried to reach 15 DMA, but fell down on higher volumes, downmove could continue 374-372-368. RSI is showing resistance at 40 levels in daily charts.
Beware of a bounce from 370-368 levels if you are short. If 368 is broken convincingly, then 360-350 is the short term target.

Friday 15 February 2013

Which stocks to trade on 15 Feb

Negative Stocks – Lupin, SBI, Tata Steel, Federal Bank, Bharti Airtel, L&T

Positive Stocks – HCL Tech, HDFC Bank

Most of the sectors are still in red in hourly and daily charts. Only IT is positive. HCLTech is one stock if you wish to go long today. HDFC Bank made a good move yesterday on volumes. The upmove could continue. Happy Trading.



Nifty– 150 points fall from the point of alert

Readers, From the point I alerted, Nifty fell down my 150 points. Nifty still looks very negative. There is good support at 5880  and then at 5840.
See my earlier posts on Nifty here
Why did Nifty Fall today
Possibility of Correction – Nifty
Overall most of the key stocks have entered into the negative zone, SBI, Tata Steel, Reliance, L&T all are negative and falling. There could be minor bounce backs , but only for selling.
If 5880 is held, then there will be bounce back and short covering. Else, fall will continue. Please do intraday trading only in the direction of Nifty tomorrow.

SBI–Continues its downward journey

SBI again fell today with heavy volumes, stock is negative. Could go down to 2200 tomorrow.
My earlier posts on SBI
SBI Downtrend to continue
SBI – Time to Sell Confirmed
SBI – Time to Sell

Thursday 14 February 2013

Never trade on a news

I have given numerous examples why we should not buy or sell on news. Market always moves ahead of news and traces back the move after the news comes in.See the example of how ICICI behaved on  positive news.

SBI - Downfall to continue further

SBI looks further weak after today and is likely to continue its slide further.

My earlier posts on SBI

SBI – Time to Sell Confirmed

SBI – Time to Sell


Tata Steel continues its downmove


I had written several times before in the past few days that Tata Steel is very negative in charts. Today it fell down further with good volumes, some critical supports are broken. The stock could now go to 360. Short for intraday and positional.

Please read my earlier post on Tata Steel

Tata Steel Critical Support broken.


Wednesday 13 February 2013

Bharti Airtel–To move up further

On crossing days high, Bharti Airtel will move up.

See my earlier post on Bharti Airtel here.

Reliance–Moving up as expected.

Volume picked up for Reliance. Again moving above days high will see further rise.

L&T–Re-iterating Buy

L&T may be bought for Swing trade for few days, since upmove is imminent as per charts.

Read my earlier post on L&T here.

Good point of entry for positional traders in cash/futures.


Reliance–Is a buy for Intraday

Reliance is consolidating and moving up, if it crosses days high could move up further and could give few points scaling gain. Note that the upmove is not under high volumes, so do not expect a rally.


L&T–Is a buy if it moves above days high and stays there

L&T  is consolidating for some time at days high. Upon crossing that , the stock will shoot up. Stock is staying above previous days high which is another positive sign. See charts for more details


Bharti Airtel is a buy for Intraday

Read my earlier analysis EOD analysis of Bharti


Bharti Airtel–Ready to Bounce back

I had given several sell calls for Bharti Airtel during the past few days and the stock was moving down continuously. Stock is showing signs of recovery in the chart and could bounce back. Buy for intraday.
See my sell calls here
Bharti Airtel – 20 points from sell point
Bharti Airtel is still weak

Sector Trends–12 Feb

Yesterday only IT was in green. Today many sectors have turned green in the hourly charts, so there is an upmove possible on 13 Feb for many stocks. This could merely be a bounce back since the daily charts are negative for most.


Will you trade on a news ?

Readers, I have warned my readers several times not to trade on news. Majority of the times the trade will be losing since the market normally reacts ahead of the news and any knee jerk reaction will always be traced back.

Below is the behavior of L&T today when IIP data was announced. I have seen several times in the past L&T bouncing back after negative IIP data. History repeats. Those who have gone short on L&T on the negative news had to square off on loss.


Todays Trades 12-Feb

2 winning trades and 1 losing trade.
Markets were very volatile today. Still could end up squeezing some profits from 3 trades.
1. Tata Steel – My entry point was alerted here. Subsequently Tata Steel fell by 3 points.
2. SBI – Was weak and sell call was given here. SBI fell down and covered with 5 points profit.
3. L&T was bought today, but SL triggered since stock reversed it gains and went to negative.  I entered into buy position in L&T since the stock was showing positive divergences in the 5 min chart from previous day and a bounce back was expected. However due to volatality due to IIP, stock fell down and later recovered.

Tuesday 12 February 2013

SBI–Likely to move down

SBI is showing negative signals in charts on sustained basis. If the current support line is broken (see chart), the stock will move down. Trade for intraday. Markets will be volatile for first half.

Tata Steel–Sell for Intraday

Tata Steel is again weak today after an attempt to be in positive. It is a sell for intraday with days high as SL.

L&T is a buy for Intraday

Indicators giving positive signals in 5 min chart.

Tata Steel–Downtrend continues as expected

I wrote about Tata Steel here in my earlier post. Today Tata Steel made several attempts to cross 388-390 levels but was not successful and fell down. Downtrend is likely to continue. If the stock crosses this level, will shoot up for few points. Below the level the stock will be negative.

Importance of Sector Trends

Analysing the sectoral trends every day after market close gives an idea of which sectors to trade the next day. Sectors which show the same trend on hourly and daily charts are good candidates to select for next day. After market opening, if the same trend continues in lower time frames, 30-15-10-5 min charts, better to trade in the same direction.
Sector trends will also give an idea on which sectors will react first on a market reversal next day.
For example, if market turns positive on Feb 12, Pharma and Banking will recover first.
Most of the sectors are still negative. Only IT is positive in daily charts. Pharma and Banks are showing some kind of resilience.
To see my earlier sector analysis click here.

L&T Update–50 points fall from sell


L&T has fallen significantly after I wrote about L&T on 05 Feb. Stock has now resistance at 1525-30 level which was the earlier support. L&T continues to be weak. Could go down up to 200 DMA 1465 levels if 1475 is crossed

Read my original post here

2013Feb-LARSEN & TOUBRO LTD.-800x600

Monday 11 February 2013

Todays Trades 11 Feb 2012

2 Winning trades and 1 losing trade.

1. Ranbaxy – This was a losing trade for me today. I sold Ranbaxy since the stock opened weak and went below days low. However Ranbaxy jumped up and was very volatile hitting my stoploss. I tend to ignore certain points – RSI was rising and MACD was also rising. However, the MA lines were falling steeply and the stock was falling on good volumes. So I decided to short.

Second point is, Pharma was very strong today. Better to trade in the direction of overall sector. I traded against the direction of the sector which was another mistake. Anyway few lessons learned in this trade with small loss !!



2. Axis Bank – Axis Bank was extremely strong after market opening and as soon as EMAs made a positive crossover, I bought Axis Bank. Thereafter the stock made a good up move and gave handsome profits.

I alerted my readers here during market hours.


3. Bharti Airtel – Bharti Airtel opened started moving down after opening and started consolidating below the previous days low. As I have mentioned before, previous days low is an important support and crossing that below is a good selling oint. In the case of Bharti, there were multiple negative indications – MA made a bearish crossover in 5 min chart and MACD was very negative.

So I gave the alert to my readers here. Since then Bharti crashed. Simple Technical Analysis and profits !!.


Also I was covering Bharti Airtel for the past few days. Read here.

Bharti Airtel – 2o points from sell point

Bharti Airtel is still weak


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