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Technical Analysis Simplified

The objective of this website is to introduce simple mechanisms for trading based on Technical Analysis. Understanding the market psychology, following a trading system consistently, entering and exiting trades in a disciplined manner all is essential for making consistent profits

IS THIS YET ANOTHER PAID TIPS SITE ?

Dear Readers, this is a purely non-profit initiative and will never become a paid site. Primary objective is to share as much information as possible from real life trading experience to help small traders earn consistently in the market.

Sunday 31 March 2013

Opening Range Breakout (ORB) Trading System

Opening Range Breakout (ORB) is a commonly used trading system by professional and amateur traders alike and has the potential to deliver high accuracy if done with optimal usage of indicators, strict rules and good assessment of overall market mood. This system is applicable only for intraday trading.

ORB trading has several variations practiced by traders all over the globe. Some traders trade on a significant breakout from opening range, while others trade immediately on opening range breakout. Time window for the trades also varies from 30 minutes to 3 hours.

Over a period of time observing and trading Indian markets, I have devised with the below system suiting our markets. Below method is both a scalping and a trending system combined into one, hence it is possible to take the advantage of quick moves and trending markets with multiple lots of trades.

Friday 29 March 2013

ICICI Intraday Buy - Trading Video

Dear Readers

Posting this video for introducing important concept of day's high / previous day's high and its use in Intraday Trading.

In my pre-market calls on 28 March, I had given a buy of ICICI Bank above the high of 27 March - 1027.
Previous day's high is an important resistance level if the stock opens below it. On 28 March, ICICI opened below the previous high and remained below that level until the last hour of trading. Overall markets were moving up and ICICI also crossed the days high with volumes. An entry there resulted in good profits.

This is a pattern ( either moving above day's high or falling below day's low) towards the end of trading day is very common in Indian markets and can give handsome profits. Following additional confirmations are important to enter the trade - Increase in volume, technical indicators supporting the trade, Moving Averages trending in the direction of the trade. All these increases the chances of success dramatically. You can see all of these in this trade.

Please watch the video to see the trade.


Thursday 28 March 2013

Nifty Outlook and Stocks to trade on 28 March

Dear Readers

Today is the last day of derivatives expiry and expect volatility. Sell on bounce looks like a good strategy for the day.

On 25th March, we had a good trading day with several of sell calls giving good profits. Tata Steel, L&T and BHEL were particularly good intraday sells.

Nifty View for 28 March

Support levels are 5600 , followed by 5565-50  levels. A break of this will open up 5500 levels.

Resistance levels are 5660-5680-5700.

Avoid any intraday longs below 5600 levels. Nifty will be positive above 5660 and bullish above 5680 levels.

Intraday Calls for 28 March

We had good short sells on stocks hitting 52 week lows. So we will try to short them in the coming days as well.

1. Hero Motors – Sell on rise to 1586-90 levels with SL at 1600. Alternatively sell below 1566 for 1552-32 targets with SL at 1580.

2. BHEL – Sell below176 for target of 175 – 173. SL 178.

3. L&T – Sell below 1330 with SL at 1350 for a target of 1320- 1310.

4. Reliance – Sell below 790 with SL at 799 for a target of 774- 768.

5. Tata Steel – Sell below 308 with SL at 312 for intraday target of 305. Below 305, fresh sell for target of 303-299 with SL at 308.

6. ICICI Bank – Buy above 1027 with SL at 1017 for target of 1032-1038.

ICICI Bank Update

Dear Readers

I covered ICICI Bank here. Please read my previous post.

ICICI Bank is holding on to the level of 1000-1005. Any day it crossed below the level will see a strong down move. Keep watching this for any potential intraday selling opportunities.

Tata Steel Update–Next target is 290.

Dear Readers

We were covering Tata Steel from 400 and then from 330 levels. It is close to the first target of 305. Bearishness is confirmed with this move and target of 290 levels is confirmed. On crossing below 300 will confirm target of 290. SL for any positional shorts is 321.

Tata Steel–Likely to move down to 300 levels

Tuesday 26 March 2013

Nifty outlook and Stocks to trade on 26 March

Please read the Nifty short term view here.

Where is Nifty heading to ?

For 26 March, expect good amount of volatility due to expiry of March derivatives. Be quick to book small profits.

Support levels are 5600 , followed by 5565-50  levels. A break of this will open up 5500 levels.

Resistance levels are 5700-5725-5750.

Avoid any intraday longs below 5620 levels. Nifty will be positive above 5660 and bullish above 5725 levels.

Stocks near 52 week low

Several stocks are now close to their 52 week lows. These stocks show weakness and may be traded on the short side for good intraday gains in the next few days. Below is a partial list of these stocks.

Tata Steel, Sail, Hero Motors, BHEL, ABB, Coal India, Reliance Infra, HDIL, Gail, NTPC, HPCL and Reliance Capital.

Tata Steel–Likely to move down to 300 levels

Dear Readers

Tata Steel is moving down in line with our expectations. Today 25th March, it hit a new 52 week low. Next target is 305. Below this, the stock could slide to 290 levels.

Stock will be positive  above 340.

To read the earlier post on Tata Steel, click here. Tata Steel– New 52 week low

ICICI Bank–To fall further

Today, we are covering the analysis on ICICI Bank, since I received several queries on whether this is the right time to invest in this stock.

The answer is No as per technical charts. ICICI crossed below the 200 DMA earlier this month and is facing continuous resistance at 105-60 levels..

200 DMA was crossed with bearish MACD cross-over and RSI moving below 50. Todays move shows Stochastic staying below the oversold sign with no indication of a bounce back.

Fall below 1000 levels and sustaining there on any day could take the stock easily to 980 levels followed by 970-950 levels. Below this, the stock could touch 910-880. As of now this looks to be the short term target for ICICI Bank.

The above views will be negated on a close above 1080 levels.

Where is Nifty heading to ?

Dear Readers

Another day of fall despite positive global cues ,this time on further domestic political uncertainty.
In todays trade, Nifty just touched the level of5720 which was the level for the market to be positive this week. A relief rally as expected did not sustain and Nifty crossed below the support levels one by one and closed below 5640.

From a short term perspective, it is now clear that Nifty is likely to touch its 200 DMA 5616. Closing below this level has the potential to take Nifty to 5500 and finally to 5300. Seeing today’s close, the kind of support the 200 DMA can provide looks to be very weak and the market is now fully into bear grip. 5300 to 4800 may be considered for long term investments either directly through stocks and ETFs or through Mutual Funds.


It is hard to believe the bearishness in our markets if we look back the run-up during the second half of 2012. Unfortunately this is the truth. Regular followers of this blog would have noticed that the first warning sign was in January of a possible correction and subsequently support levels one after the other were broken. Now 200 DMA is the last hope for bulls.

TechnicalAnalysisSimplified.com

Monday 25 March 2013

Axis Bank - Intraday Buy above 1327


Bajaj Auto - Intraday Sell below1805

Sell Bajaj Auto below 1805 with SL at 1825.

Sunday 24 March 2013

Nifty Outlook and stocks to trade on 25 March

Dear Readers

Nifty weekly outlook for the week starting 25 March

We saw a series of support levels being broken last week starting from 5880. This has the potential to take Nifty to 5500 levels. If this level is broken, then the doors for 5300 will be opened up.

Next week is short trading week with holidays on 27 March and 29 March.Expiry of March derivatives also falls in this week. Overall markets will tend to be volatile with attempts for a relief rally to the resistance levels close to 5725. Next significant resistance is at 5745 followed by 5800 – 5880.

US markets closed strong on Friday and based on the fact that the negative news on domestic financial irregularities, political uncertainty and RBI stance has been factored already into the market, the chance is that on Monday markets will try to rally.

For the week, if Nifty sustains above 5720-25 levels, buying will come into the market despite the volatility due to expiry. Potential target for the week is 5800.

Nifty outlook for 25 March

Support levels for tomorrow 5625 , followed by 5590 levels. A break of this will open up 5550 levels.

Resistance levels are 5680-5720-5745.

Avoid any intraday longs below 5640. Nifty will be positive above 5660 and bullish above 5680 levels.

Stocks to trade on 25 March

Will be updated before market opening..

Friday 22 March 2013

NTPC - Positional Update

Dear Readers

I covered NTPC in my earlier analysis. On breaking, the support of 143, the stock has touched the target 141 and 139. Those who are holding positional shorts may book profits.

To see the earlier analysis -

NTPC Outlook – Will it move up ?

TechnicalAnalysisSimplified.com

Infy, HCL Tech at Intraday Sell below levels


Tata Steel– New 52 week low

Dear Readers

I had covered Tata Steel right from 400 levels till 330 and was maintaining bearish view. 330 was a crucial support level We did several successful day trades on the short side.

Nifty Outlook and Stocks to trade on 22 March

Dear Readers

Nifty made wild swings on Thursday and finally crossed crucial supports and ended in red. News in the domestic front and European news – all contributed to the fall. European and US markets also ended in red yesterday. Overall, the market sentiment is bearish globally at least for the trading on Friday.

Nifty View for 22 March

Nifty today closed below another support of 5680 which is further confirming the bearish trend which started from the day 5880 support was broken. I had covered the importance of this level in my previous posts. Today we are down 200 points from that level.

Several traders bought futures and call options in the past few days hoping for a recovery and big returns, most of them have left the markets in big losses. Their last hope was a rally today , which was in fact a chance to exit. Many were not ready to book losses on 5900 CE when 5880 was broken. Instead they hoped that they will be in profit soon. It is always important to go with the trend rather than go against the trend and hope for a recovery.

Coming back to the views for tomorrow.

Support levels for tomorrow 5645 , followed by 5615 levels. A break of this will open up 5570 levels. Unfortunately there are not many strong support levels till 5570 which is a matter of concern.

Resistance levels are 5680-5720-5745.

Avoid any intraday longs below 5680. Nifty will be positive above 5700 and bullish above 5745 which is a quite unlikely move.

Intraday calls for 22 March

1. Hero Motors – Sell below 1615 for a target of 1605 with SL at 1636. Sustaining below 1605 will take the stock further down to 1585 levels.

2. Bajaj Auto – Bajaj Auto crossed the level of 1805 which we were tracking few days back and the stock had a high volume fall. Sell below 1740 with SL at 1760 for a target of 1715.

3. Tata Steel – Sell on sustain below 325 for a target of 322 with SL at 328. Below322, the target is 318.

4. HCL Tech – Sell below 767 for a target of 763 followed by 758with SL at 782.

5. Infosys – Sell below 2855 for a target of 2840 with SL at 2875.

6. BHEL –  Sell below 179 for a  target of 178 and 176. SL is 181.50.

I have provided several calls since all of them might not trigger.  Do not take more than 1 position at a time as news based moves could result trigger SLs.

Please take positions only after 9:35 AM.

Please do not trade blindly on these levels. A buy position should be supported by charts giving positive signals. A sell position should be supported by charts giving negative signals. Please see real trades in earlier posts to understand how an intraday long or short is created.

Real Trades Update
Trading Videos


Any significant news which affects individual stocks or  overall market direction will invalidate the technical analysis behind the above views. In such a situation use real time charts to trade.

All the views and contents mentioned in this blog are the personal observations of the author and is in no way a recommendation for the readers to enter into trades of stocks/futures. The author do not accept any liability/loss resulting from the use of any content from this blog. Any act of trading performed by readers should be at their own discretion and neither the author or the sources mentioned in the blog will be responsible for the outcome.

Subscribe for the posts in your favorite reader. Please click on the RSS button in the age.
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Todays Trades 21 March–2 winning trades

Today we saw significant volatility with market swinging in both directions. These kind of markets may be day traded only by having clear levels and discipline in mind. We had 2 sell calls in the pre-market calls for today which fetched handsome returns to the followers.

Out of our pre-market calls, only the two sell calls triggered.

1. Tata Steel – Below 333, it touched 325.

2. ONGC – Below 300, the stock touched 294.

Hope readers enjoyed these trades.

Once more re-iterating the fact that trading less is the only way to earn profits consistently. It is not necessary to make several trades and take bigger risks. Instead, trade based on levels and charts, when both support the trade. This is the trading system we have here and followed by many successful traders. Please try following this approach and I am sure you will make lot of money.

Today many people lost heavily since they were short when 5700 was crossed, but immediately Nifty shot up without any stop to 5745 resistance level triggering all stop losses. Then those who went long at 5745 could not book profits before the Nifty made steep fall from 5760 levels. In such swings , individual stocks will respect the support resistance levels better than Nifty and this is one of the reasons why we do not trade in Nifty here.

Thursday 21 March 2013

Nifty Outlook and Stocks to trade on 21 March

Dear Readers
In continuation to yesterdays fall, Nifty further slided and closed down by more than 50 points today. Markets seemed to be fully digesting the news. Banks and Reality were worst hit in this fall. A bounce back is expected in todays trade.

Review of 19 March trades.

3 successful trades from pre-market calls.
L&T Sell below 1460 – booked at 1430
ICICI Sell below 1020 – booked at 1000
BHEL Sell below 185 – booked at 182
TCS long – booked close to cost since markets started falling.

Nifty view for 21 March

A close below 5800 on 19 March has resulted in close to 100 points loss. Nifty closed yesterday just below 5700. Nifty touched 5680 level and bounced back during the last hour of trade. This bounce could continue till 5725-30 levels. Crossing this and sustaining above will take the Nifty to next resistance of 5770.
Avoid any intraday longs below 5700. Nifty will be positive as long as 5700 is held and bullish above 5730.

Intraday calls for 21 March

1. ONGC – Sell only on sustain below 300 for a target of 297. SL 304
2. Tata Steel – Sell below 332 for a target of 331-330 with SL at 337
3. Cipla – Buy above 394 with SL at 388 for a target of 396. If stock sustains above 396, then 388-90 is the target.
4. Tata Motors – Buy above 287 with SL at 282.5 for a target of 290. Is the stock sustains above 290, then 292 is a possible target.
5. Hero Honda – Buy above 1660  for a target of 1680. SL 1645.
6. ICICI Bank – Sell below 995 for a target of 989-980 with SL at 1012
7. Bajaj Auto – Buy above 1850 for a target of 1870-80 with SL at 1834

Please do not trade blindly on these levels. A buy position should be supported by charts giving positive signals. A sell position should be supported by charts giving negative signals. Please see real trades inearlier posts to understand how an intraday long or short is created.

Real Trades Update
Trading Videos

Any significant news which affects individual stocks or  overall market direction will invalidate the technical analysis behind the above views. In such a situation use real time charts to trade.

All the views and contents mentioned in this blog are the personal observations of the author and is in no way a recommendation for the readers to enter into trades of stocks/futures. The author do not accept any liability/loss resulting from the use of any content from this blog. Any act of trading performed by readers should be at their own discretion and neither the author or the sources mentioned in the blog will be responsible for the outcome.


Subscribe for the posts in your favorite reader. Please click on the RSS button in the age.
Those who have not tried an RSS reader, please try www.feedly.com which is one of the best RSS readers for Chrome, Android and iOS.

Wednesday 20 March 2013

L&T - 30 points, ICICI - 20 points, BHEL - 3 points–Book Profits

 

Those who traded based on my pre-market calls, book profits now, 5670—80 is support zone for Nifty.

For  pre-market calls of today click below

Nifty Outlook and Stocks to trade on 20 March

L&T Sell below 1460 - now at 1430
ICICI Sell below 1020 - now at 1000
BHEL Sell below 185 - now at 182

ICICI Bank - Intraday sell below 1020


TCS & ICICI - Intraday buy above day's high


Nifty Outlook and Stocks to trade on 20 March

Dear Readers

Yesterday Nifty crossed well below the support level of 5800 and 5780 which we thought would act as a low in the interim. RBI rate cut was as expected and already factored in the market movement in the past few days. Overall RBI’s cautious stance and the news on political uncertainty in the country led to a sell of with Nifty closing down close to 90 points.

Review of yesterday’s calls

Please read yesterday’s calls here

Nifty outlook and stocks to trade on 19 March

I could not post yesterdays trades separately due to time constraint. Post RBI announcement was made, the only stock which I could trade from my watch list was Tata Motors. Below 285, Tata Motors hit the target of 280 and made another low close to 279.

Nifty view for 20 March

As I have been writing here, crossing below 5800 is not a good sign for Nifty and the overall bearish trend is now confirmed for the short term. Going forward, 5800 will act as a tough resistance.

Support levels for today are 5725 followed by 5700. Crossing below 5700 any day will take the index to 5670-80 levels.

For today, market will be positive above 5780. Below this levels, no longs are recommended.

Stocks to trade on 20 March

1. ICICI Bank – closed below a critical support level yesterday. Recovery up to 1040 levels is possible which will act as a resistance. Today selling positions may be taken below 1020 with SL at 1042. Targets are 1010 and 1000. Below 1000, the stock could slip to 990.

2. L&T – Sell below 1460 for a target of 1450. SL is 1480.

3. BHEL – This stock ever since it crossed the support at 199 levels, has turned extremely bearish. Sell below 185 for a target of 182 and 179. SL is at 189.50.

4. Tata Motors – Sell below 278, for a target of 276 and 272. SL for shorts is 284.

5. Bajaj Auto – Sell below 1805 for a target of 1790 with SL at 1820 levels.

Please do not trade blindly on these levels. A buy position should be supported by charts giving positive signals. A sell position should be supported by charts giving negative signals. Please see real trades inearlier posts to understand how an intraday long or short is created.


Real Trades Update
Trading Videos

Any significant news which affects individual stocks or  overall market direction will invalidate the technical analysis behind the above views. In such a situation use real time charts to trade.

All the views and contents mentioned in this blog are the personal observations of the author and is in no way a recommendation for the readers to enter into trades of stocks/futures. The author do not accept any liability/loss resulting from the use of any content from this blog. Any act of trading performed by readers should be at their own discretion and neither the author or the sources mentioned in the blog will be responsible for the outcome.


Subscribe for the posts in your favorite reader. Please click on the RSS button in the age.
Those who have not tried an RSS reader, please try www.feedly.com which is one of the best RSS readers for Chrome, Android and iOS.

Tuesday 19 March 2013

Nifty outlook and stocks to trade on 19 March

Dear Readers

Today markets were impacted by multiple negative news including the domestic news on the banking sector irregularities and global news from Cyprus triggering the concern of a chain reaction. US markets saw a sell off at opening, but recovered from lows, but closed negative.
Markets will be watching and reacting to the RBI news on trading hours and it is strictly advised not to have any intraday positions until the news is settled and market stabilizes. Markets have already factored in 25 points cut in tomorrows RBI meet, so a major sell off or rally is not expected unless there is a big surprise in either direction.

Sector trends as of 18 Mar

Pharma, FMCG and PSU Banks are still holding positive in daily charts, while all other sectors especially Auto and Metals are negative in both daily and hourly charts.

Nifty View for 19 March

Nifty support level is 5800. Sustaining this will result in further bearish mood.

Critical resistances are 5850 followed by 5875-5900. Support levels are 5825 – 5800 followed by 5780. I expect this to be the maximum low today.

As long as Nifty is below 5825, overall trend is bearish and no intraday longs are recommended.

Intraday Calls for 19 March


Monday 18 March 2013

Todays Trades 18 March - 2 winning trades

Dear Readers

Today we had two successful trades. Most of the stocks in my pre-market calls opened lower than my trigger price, but Bajaj Auto and Tata Motors gave good sell opportunities.

Trade 1- Bajaj Auto - Successfull Sell

Bajaj Auto was up during the first half an hour. However the stock moved below my level of 1840. Subsequently it touched a low of 1805 during the day. A short entry was made below 1840 and multiple lots
booked till 1815. I was able to alert my readers here real time.

Please view the video to get a real feeling on how the trade looked like during market hours.

Trade 2 - Tata Motors - Successful Sell

Tata Motors continuously sustained below 290 a short was made at 289 and covered at 286.

Keep visiting for unbiased guidance for trading and market analysis.

If you are new to the blog, please visit  Introduction

Bajaj Auto - 30 points Book full profits

Dear Readers, those who are holding remaining lots in Bajaj Auto book full profits. From 1835 to 1805 levels , close to 30 points profit. 

Bajaj Auto - Update 20 points profit.

Bajaj Auto , falls further. Book profits around 1815. 

Tata Motors Update

Tata Motors, those  who sold below 290 based on pre-market calls can book partial profits. Below 285.50,  another fresh selling opportunity with SL at 288

Bajaj Auto Intraday - 10 points book partial profit

Bajaj Auto Intraday - 10 points book partial profit and revise SL to cost for remaining lots. 

Bajaj Auto, Hero Motors - Sell below days low

Bajaj Auto is a sell below 1635 with SL at 1645 and Hero Motors is a sell below 1670 with SL at 1685. Enter shorts with strict SLs.

Nifty Outlook and Stocks to trade on 18 Mar

Dear Readers

This week is again a week of news flow with the RBI Monetary policy on 19 and FOMC meeting on interest rates on 19 and 20. Taking swing or positional trades this week is not recommended due to the expected volatility due to these news flows.

Nifty View for week starting 18 March

I have been writing about the resistance levels 5950 and 5975 in my few posts before. Last week the index was close to the resistance of 5975 and made a low close to 5800. On Friday, Nifty faced resistance at 5950 levels and also broke the critical level of 5880 and closed below that , this is a sign of concern.

Going forward, 5950 will be a critical resistance followed by 5975. Above 6000, the mood will be bullish. On the other hand, a break of 5860 will result in a slide to 5845 and 5800. Crossing below 5800 and sustaining is a big negative to the immediate trend.

The financial irregularities news in the banking sector impacted ICICI, Axis Bank and HDFC Bank, while SBI is holding on to its gains. Developments regarding this news event could affect overall market since many will take this as a reflection of corporate governance in India.

Dow Jones hit new highs during the last week though on Friday Dow showed some weakness. Indian markets will be mostly on wait and watch with negative bias on Monday. Tuesday it will react to news and will be very volatile – avoid trading during the day. Wednesday’s movement will decide the trend unless news flow from US impacts the markets.

Stocks to trade on 18 March

1. ICICI Bank – ICICI bank closed below the 15 day moving average on Friday with increase in volume. We had a successful short as well on Friday. I expect the downward move to continue. Below 1080 the stock is negative. With this as SL shorts may be entered for target of 1060. Below 1055, there is another opportunity to short for a target of 1045 followed by 1033. Keep SL as 1070 in such a case.
2. L&T – Sell below 1500 for a target of 1480 with SL at 1515.
3. Tata Motors – Tata Motors had a good fall on Friday with volumes and the stock closed below 100 day EMA. RSI and MACD is giving sell indications in daily charts. Sell only if the stock sustains below 290 with SL at 294.50.
4. Bajaj Auto – Bajaj Auto was falling on high volumes for the past 5 days and has seen bearish MACD AND EMA crossovers. The stock is likely to fall till the 200 EMA support at 1815. Sell below 1840 with SL at 1862.
Please do not trade blindly on these levels. A buy position should be supported by charts giving positive signals. A sell position should be supported by charts giving negative signals. Please see real trades in earlier posts to understand how an intraday long or short is created.

Real Trades Update

Trading Videos

Any significant news which affects individual stocks or  overall market direction will invalidate the technical analysis behind the above views. In such a situation use real time charts to trade.

All the views and contents mentioned in this blog are the personal observations of the author and is in no way a recommendation for the readers to enter into trades of stocks/futures. The author do not accept any liability/loss resulting from the use of any content from this blog. Any act of trading performed by readers should be at their own discretion and neither the author or the sources mentioned in the blog will be responsible for the outcome.

Subscribe for the posts in your favorite reader. Please click on the RSS button in the age.

Those who have not tried an RSS reader, please try www.feedly.com which is one of the best RSS readers for Chrome, Android and iOS.

Sunday 17 March 2013

NTPC Outlook – Will it move up ?

Dear Readers

Giving a brief technical analysis and outlook for NTPC based on request from reader.

NTPC has been on down trend for past several weeks and it touched a fresh 3 months low on 15 March.
As per charts, NTPC is likely to move further down to its support levels of 143, followed by 141, 139 which could be a potential bottom in this wave. Resistances are placed at 148 followed by 151.Detailed analysis below.

When you take a positional call , it is important to do the analysis on two time frames, this is called dual time frame analysis. This will yield higher probability of success since stocks tend to respect the higher time frame trend than the lower time frame. Ideal trades occur when the lower time frame is in sync with the higher time frame. This applies to intraday trades as well.

Weekly Chart Observations:

1. Moving averages show highly negative trend. 15 and 20 week moving averages are below 50 and 200 week moving averages. The stocks attempt to close above these averages were not successful in the last 3 months.
2. MACD negative and there is still little more room to the downside.
3. 14 week RSI negative and not yet in the oversold region indicating a move to downward support levels.
4. Stochastics in the oversold region, but no signs of bounce back yet.

Daily Chart Observations:

1. Moving averages indicate negative trend. Stock is below the 20 day moving average.
2. MACD has given a negative cross over post failure to close above the MAs
3. 14 day RSI is indicating a bounce back, but the influence looks weak.
4. Stochastics is close to entering oversold. But no signs of bounce back. Fast stochastics indicate some more downmove.

Maruti Intraday Trade–Video

Dear Readers, another video of a real trade in Maruti on 15th March. For details on the trade click on the below link.

Todays Trades 15 Mar–3 winning trades

Short was entered in Maruti just below 1402 and partial profits were booked close to 1393. This trade shows the importance to book profits as soon as you see it and hits your first target. Also important to revise SL to your cost for the remaining holdings. Please see the trade by clicking the video. Hope you would like this visual commentary on the trade.


IndianStocksTA.

Saturday 16 March 2013

ICICI Bank Intraday Trade–Video

Dear Readers
Here is the video on the intraday sell of ICICI Bank. This will give you a real life feeling on how the trading would look like intraday on your terminal. Enjoy and write back for any suggestions.

For details on the trade visit my post
Todays Trades 15 Mar–3 winning trades




IndianStocksTA

Todays Trades 15 Mar–3 winning trades

Dear Readers
As cautioned  in my pre-market calls, the negative news on Banking sector in India resulted in a fall in the markets, particularly in Banking. ICICI, Axis Bank and HDFC Bank fell between 1-4%.
Today’s trades.

1. ICICI Bank – Successful Sell

ICICI Bank opened below previous day’s close and was facing continuous selling pressure. I alerted the readers here to short on crossing the pivot. ICICI crossed below pivot and finally was down by more than 4%. Please see charts for more dtails on the trade.

2. Maruti – Successful Sell
Maruti fell below the support level of 1410 and finally crossed the pivot from above. I alerted the readers here real time and traded short. Please click on the chart for more details.

3. L&T – Successful Sell
L&T was hitting the resistance level of 1530 several times and could not move up. Subsequently it fell down and crossed the pivot of 1410. MACD never recovered above zero though in between the stock made an attempt to move up. Finally there was a dip allowing us to book profits. Please click the charts for more details.

Hope you too made profits. Please share your feedback and what else you would like to see from my posts.

I will be posting weekly outlook and trades for next week soon.

Friday 15 March 2013

L&T Intraday Sell

L&T is a intraday sell below 1410. 

Maruti - Intraday Sell below 1402


ICICI -Intraday Sell - Book profits


ICICI 10 points down from the sell call, Nifty at next support. Book profits and exit.

ICICI - Intraday Sell

ICICI has crossed the pivot from above. Intraday sell with SL as day's high.

Which stocks to trade today 15 Mar

Dear Readers

Today was very volatile for the first half with a down move in the beginning and  V shaped recovery with volatality after the data was announced.

Todays inflation data gave hopes to the market that there will be a positive movement from RBI on March 19 and there will be a reduction of 25 points in the key lending rates.

Banking sector rallied and SBI and ICICI made significant upmove. Axis bank however made only a moderate upmove. Most of the sectors have turned buy in daily and hourly charts.

In Auto, Maruti crossed above the resistance of 1410 and made significant upmove. Hero Honda and Bajaj Auto closed in the red.

Dow has made another record high in todays trades and overall global market mood indicates that Nifty is likely to move up on Friday first half with little bit of profit booking during the second half. Be cautious about the domestic news on financial irregularities, any remarks announcements on this during market hours in next few days could trigger a down fall.

Nifty Outlook for 15 Mar

Nifty will remain positive above 5880 levels where majority of buying happened on Thursday. All intraday longs should be exited below this.

On the higher side, resistances are 5950 followed by 5975. If sustained above 5975, the index could hit 5990-6000 where there will be major resistance. I do not expect a move above this on Friday.

On the down side, support is at 5880- 5860-5840. Nifty is unlikely to fall below this.

Intraday Calls for 15 Mar

1. Hero Honda -  We had a successful short on Hero Honda today. I would like to trade a further short on Hero Honda. Below 1676, Hero Honda is negative. First target is 1660-56. Sustaining below 1654, Hero Honda will go to 1645 – 1631 levels.

2. Bajaj Auto – Sell below 1860 for a target of 1850. Below 1840, there is another selling opportunity for a target of 1830-25

3. ICICI Bank – Buy only above the previous resistance level of 1125 for a target of 1130-40. SL for long is 1110.

4. Reliance – Buy above 865 for a target of 870 and 880. SL for longs is 853.

5. L&T -  Buy above 1535 for a target of 1540 –1555 with SL at 1515.

As usual enter only after 09:35 AM.

Any significant news which affects individual stocks or  overall market direction will invalidate the technical analysis behind the above views. In such a situation use real time charts to trade.All the views and contents mentioned in this blog are the personal observations of the author and is in no way a recommendation for the readers to enter into trades of stocks/futures. The author do not accept any liability/loss resulting from the use of any content from this blog. Any act of trading performed by readers should be at their own discretion and neither the author or the sources mentioned in the blog will be responsible for the outcome.

Thursday 14 March 2013

Todays Trades – 13 March 3 winning trades

Dear Readers
Market had a significant upmove. I could not take full advantage of this, since I was awaiting my level of 5920 to be crossed to be bullish overall. Today's high was exactly at 5920.
Made the following trades.
1. Tata Steel - Sold below 352 and covered at 348 as per my pre-market call.
2. Hero Honda - As per the alert I gave here, I sold below 1700 and could squeeze in 5-6 points profit.
3. ICICI Bank - Nifty crossed 5860 and ICICI as well recovered from days low and crossed the critical resistance of 1095 which was incidentally the high made in the initial 20 minutes. On crossing this, entered at 1097 and booked profit at 1110 levels.
Did not go for any other shorts, since Nifty crossed 5860. (Please read pre-market calls)
Which stocks to trade today 14 March
Hope the readers too made profits today. We might have missed some huge upmoves today since we were on the bearish side. But, markets will give plenty of chances in the coming days. So dont bother about lost opportunity. What is important for a day trader is to remain in net profit at the end of the day, every day !!

Hero Honda–Intraday Sell

Hero Honda, going below the days low and sustaining could give few points on the short side. Sell below 1670 for target of 1660

Tata Steel , L&T Update

Tata Steel touched the target of 347 below 352. Book profits and exit.

L&T sell if it sustains below 1480.

Which stocks to trade today 14 March

Dear Readers
Today is a day with news flow and planning for the day in advance is a tough job. So we will basically play with levels. Risky traders are recommended to wait till market settles down after the WPI data is announced.

Tomorrows WPI data will decide RBI stance on March 19. If you remember, for few days banking sector was rallying on the rate cut hopes, however this sector has fallen significantly in the last two days. PSU Banks and Bank Nifty as a whole have turned sell in daily and hourly charts. ICICI and Axis Bank were down close to 3% today and could continue downfall if inflation data is not supportive. Anyway no buying in banking is recommended even if the data is good.

Metals continue to be strong sell in both hourly and daily charts. Auto has turned to sell in daily charts.

Nifty view

Nifty could not climb above 5920 today and the support 5880 was broken. Tomorrow 5885 will be a major resistance, followed by 5920.
Support will be 5840, followed by 5810. In case of a major fall, Nifty could go upto 5780.
Any intraday long is recommended only above 5860. Shorts could be initiated as long as index is below 5860.


Intraday Calls
I recommend no open positions close to 11 AM when the data is announced. Best would be to enter after 11:30 once the IIP data is digested. If any positions are taken at 09:30, if in profits, please book before the data is announced. Keep strict SLs.
1. ICICI Bank – In daily charts, ICICI has crossed below 15 and 20 day moving averages and stochastics has given a sell.
ICICI will face major resistance at 1095 and 1107. Reversals from these levels could be shorted. SL for shorts will be 1116.
Below 1095, ICICI is a sell with target of 1080-75. If the stock sustains below 1075, then it could go to 1060-40 levels.
2. Axis Bank – In daily charts, Axis Bank is below 20 day EMA and resting at 200 day MA. Trade similar to ICICI. Major resistances at 1355 and 1375. SL for shorts is 1382-85.
Below 1355, Axis is a sell with target of 1346, 1340. Sustain below 1340 could lead to 1330 and 1310 levels.
3. SBI – Sell below 2180, for targets of 2160-55 which is a major support. (Risky trade)
4. Maruti – Maruti is giving us daily profits on shorts for the past few days. Tomorrow however, Maruti is a sell on rise towards 1386-90 levels. with SL at 1410 levels. Target is 1380-70-60 levels.
5. L&T – Sell below 1480 for target of 1470 with SL at 1510. We have to maintain a high SL because of the volatality. Risky traders avoid.
6. BHEL – BHEL was a good trade today , some more downside is left. Support was broken to day and the stock could go up to 195. Short with SL at 199. If 195-4 range is broken with volumes, then 190 will be the target in next few days.
7. Tata Steel – Do not short as long as the stock is above 352. Sustain below 352-350 could see a target of 347. Risky to short since there is a positive news on the stock.
Safe traders, please avoid the calls marked as risky. As usual enter only after 09:35 AM.

Any significant news which affects individual stocks or  overall market direction will invalidate the technical analysis behind the above views. In such a situation use real time charts to trade.All the views and contents mentioned in this blog are the personal observations of the author and is in no way a recommendation for the readers to enter into trades of stocks/futures. The author do not accept any liability/loss resulting from the use of any content from this blog. Any act of trading performed by readers should be at their own discretion and neither the author or the sources mentioned in the blog will be responsible for the outcome.

Wednesday 13 March 2013

Contact Me


Market–Update

Don’t enter into any long trades below 5920. It is risky.

Reliance may be bought for intraday if the stock sustains above 855, don’t enter a spike above 855.

Which stocks to trade today 13 Mar

Readers

Nifty is facing resistances on its upmove. On Monday ,the resistance was at 5975 and on Tuesday at 5950. For today’s trade Nifty will be negative below 5920. Resistances will be 5940-50-75..  Next support is 5900-5880.

In daily charts Nifty made a Doji on Monday followed by  a low close candle. Another red candle in daily chart will be a confirmation of a down trend.

As written yesterday, IT stocks have turned weak further. HCL Tech after rallying for several days closed in red today. Infosys looks weak and downfall could continue.

Most of the sectors have become sell in hourly charts. Metals is showing good amount of weakness with Hindalco, JSW Steel and Tata Steel negative.

IIP data was positive, but inflation data was not favorable for rate sensitive stocks. ICICI from the banking sector was down. SBI is still holding.

I am adding Reliance and Tata Steel to my watchlist for trading.

Todays Intraday Calls

I am increasing the number of calls based on the feedback that on some days enough opportunities are not generated. However do not enter more than 2 trades at a time. Ideally 1 open trade at a time.
1. ICICI Bank – Likely to move down further. If ICICI opens above 1125 and slides below this level, sell with SL as 1137. If opening is below 1125, sell below 1112 for a target of 1102. SL for short is 1125 in that case.
2. SBI – Indecisive, so I will not be trading today.
3. Infosys – Likely to move down further. Sell only below 2910 with SL as 2925. Target is 2905-2985.
4. Maruti – Sell below 1416 with SL of 1426. Target is 1405. Sustain below 14o0 will see the stock moving to 1390-75.
5. Reliance – Reliance ended up positive in today’s session. Daily charts are in buy mode. Buy only above 855 for 860 target.
6. L&T – Yesterday it did not cross my level of 1525. Today  L&T is a buy above 1525 with SL 1515. If Nifty is below 5920, then L&T can be shorted below 1515 with SL at 1525.
7. Tata Steel – Buy above 363 with SL below 356. Sell below 356 with SL above 363 for target of 352. Below 352, the stock could slide to 349-8.
Please take positions only after 09:35 AM.Trade less - based on levels and chart. Question yourselves before entering a trade – whether it is a high probability trade or an emotional trade. Today major movement is not expected, so buy/ sell will give only few points profit. Be quick to grab your profits. Wish you good luck.
Any significant news which affects individual stocks or  overall market direction will invalidate the technical analysis behind the above views. In such a situation use real time charts to trade.
All the views and contents mentioned in this blog are the personal observations of the author and is in no way a recommendation for the readers to enter into trades of stocks/futures. The author do not accept any liability/loss resulting from the use of any content from this blog. Any act of trading performed by readers should be at their own discretion and neither the author or the sources mentioned in the blog will be responsible for the outcome.

Tuesday 12 March 2013

Todays Trades – 12 March 4 winning trades

Dear Readers

Sharing my trades and lessons from today.

As per my pre-market calls, I was mostly looking for selling opportunities in Banking, Auto and Metal stocks. Please read my pre-market calls here. Nifty was below my level of 5920 from market opening. Though market attempted to move above days high after 11 AM, there was heavy selling and the support of 5880 was broken convincingly.

Most of the stocks opened below my sell levels and initially there were no opportunties to trade. But overall Nifty weakness and stocks moving below days low coupled with observing divergences helped me to make the below trades.

1. Maruti – Maruti was well below my sell levels, but was consolidating at the days low and finally crossed the days low along with weakness in Nifty. Please click on the chart for more details.

2. BHEL – BHEL was crossing days low and a crucial support, so I decided to short and alerted my readers in the blog. Please click the chart for more details.

3. ICICI Bank – ICICI was much below my sell level. But I could see ICICI developing a hidden divergence during the second half of the day, hence I decided to short. The stock crossing day’s low confirmed my decision and it gave me several profit points.

From the charts, I could also sense that the market is expecting negative news probably from the RBI meet later during the month. Axis Bank was falling in parallel and even SBI started to move down.

Important concept of Hidden Divergence.

When price makes lower high , but indicator makes higher high – It is called Hidden Divergence. If you see this any day, blindly short. (Opposite is Price making higher low , but indicator making lower low, go long in that case)
This is what you can see in todays ICICI Chart. Between points A-B-C-D, the price was falling down. But MACD and RSI were continuously moving up. From A to D both these indicators were moving up. Please click on the chart and go through my comments.
4. Tata Steel – Was relatively strong during the da
y and made several attempts to move up during the first half of the day. However this was faced with selling and the stock moved below my sell levels of 356. I entered into sell position here several points profit. Please see the chart .

Other stocks from  my watchlist which I did not trade.
L&T – My sell level was 1515. Stock could not cross this, days high was 1512. There was a trading opportunity to short on rise to this level.
SBI – There was a trading opportunity to sell below days low.
Reliance – Attempted to cross 855, but was faced with selling exactly at this point.

Hope my readers have made profits today. If you have any questions on these trades, please feel free to write here.

Todays Trades 12 March–4 winning trades

Readers

Today, all trades profitable as per the levels in the pre-market calls.

Pre-Market Calls.

**********************************************************
1. ICICI Bank – Sell below 1127 for target of 1118. Below 1118, stock could slide by another 10-20 points. SL for shorts is 1140.

2. Maruti – Sell below 1412 with SL of 1427. Below 1405, the stock will further slide.

3. L&T – Buy above 1525 for target of 1530- 1550. SL is 1492. Please do not buy into the spike of IIP news. Do not sell L&T below the SL, since L&T recovers typically  even if IIP news is bad. Another condition for long trade in L&T is Nifty crossing 6000.

4. Infosys – Sell below 2930 with SL at 2945. Target is 2920.

5. SBI- Sell below 2190 with SL at 2206.
**********************************************************

Actual Trades as of 01:30 PM

1. ICICI Bank - Sold at 1126 and covered at 1119. Success

2. Maruti - Sold at 1410 and covered at 1405.

3. L&T - Buy above level not triggered. Days high at 1421. As I wrote in the pre-market call, L&T recovered sharply from days low.

4. Infosys - Sold at 2928 and covered at 2920.

Hope everyone enjoyed the trades. I will post selected charts after market closing.

ICICI , Maruti below Intraday Sell Levels

ICICI and Maruti below their Sell levels.

Which stocks to trade today 12 Mar

Infosys Intraday Update

Below 2930, Infosys has touched 2920. Below 2920, we will see further fall.

Which stocks to trade today 12 Mar

Which stocks to trade today 12 Mar

Readers

On 11 Mar, Nifty did not cross my resistance level of 5975 identified in the weekly outlook. In fact todays market movement shows a weakness overall. So for me, the longs would be only above the resistance level of 6000 sustained.

Today is a news day with IIP data announcement at 11:00 AM. My suggestion is not to keep any positions between 10:30 and 11:30 if possible to avoid fluctuations.

Technical Analysis will not be much of use on high news days, so basically, I would trade based on levels.

Sector view: IT and Banking sectors are showing weakness. So I will not enter long trades in ICICI, SBI as in the past few days. Instead I will look for possible shorts in these stocks. Maruti has given a confirmation of Dark Cloud Cover Pattern discussed here. ONGC and Cipla are not moving as per expectations, so I am dropping from my watchlist.

1. ICICI Bank – Sell below 1127 for target of 1118. Below 1118, stock could slide by another 10-20 points. SL for shorts is 1140.

2. Maruti – Sell below 1412 with SL of 1427. Below 1405, the stock will further slide.

3. L&T – Buy above 1525 for target of 1530- 1550. SL is 1492. Please do not buy into the spike of IIP news. Do not sell L&T below the SL, since L&T recovers typically  even if IIP news is bad. Another condition for long trade in L&T is Nifty crossing 6000.

4. Infosys – Sell below 2930 with SL at 2945. Target is 2920.

5. SBI- Sell below 2190 with SL at 2206.

Please take positions only after 09:35 AM. Wish you good luck. Being news day, take only one open position at a time even if levels are met.

Any significant news which affects individual stocks or  overall market direction will invalidate the technical analysis behind the above views. In such a situation use real time charts to trade.


All the views and contents mentioned in this blog are the personal observations of the author and is in no way a recommendation for the readers to enter into trades of stocks/futures. The author do not accept any liability/loss resulting from the use of any content from this blog. Any act of trading performed by readers should be at their own discretion and neither the author or the sources mentioned in the blog will be responsible for the outcome.

Trading Divergence Intraday–Tata Steel

Dear Readers

I would like to introduce a high probability trade setup for intraday trading, which is divergence in 5 min intraday charts. (Other time frames may also be used, but I am comfortable with this time interval).

A bearish divergence occurs when price makes a higher high, but indicators does not move up accordingly. A bullish divergence occurs when price makes a lower low, but indicators does not. For intraday trades, divergences if any will be seen during the second half of the day.

There are some additional conditions and confirmations required.

1. Volume on the second high or low should be lesser.
2. The trade setup should be confirmed by another bullish or bearish sign. This could be an MA crossover or stochastics buy/sell which follows the divergence.

The Tata Steel intraday chart of 11 March is a good example of divergence setup.

The stock made two highs A and B. B was above A and also above previous day's high. However , the top B was made with a lower volume. Another attempt was made at C this time again with a lower  volume.

Corresponding to A-B price movement, Indicators were either flat or pointing down. A stochastics sell hook just after point B gave a confirmation for sell. Please click on the chart and read for more information.


Monday 11 March 2013

Will you trade spikes or Consolidation - Breakout ?

Dear Readers

While you day trade, it is extremely important to understand the difference between consolidation and breakout vs spikes with/without volume. Consolidation is stock moving in a narrow band for several minutes. The longer the conslidation, the stronger will be the breakout. Again breakout is not rapid single candle of several points. (Search for consolidation in the sight to see real life examples).

Spikes represent a sudden upmove or downmove in price , but without any follow up buy or sell. For eg. SBI was whipsawing today for several hours and suddenly one upmove candle was seen with volume. This was immediately followed by selling. Anybody who entered here would have ended in loss.

I request you to go through consolidation examples in this site and understand the difference between spikes which will never yield you money. On the other hand if you are long / short and spike happens in your favor book profits immediately (may be at the end of 2 min candle).

Please click on today's SBI chart to see an example. Another point to highlight here is , the spike gives a false impression to new traders that the previous resistance during the day points B and C are taken out. But these are false or minor resistances. The true major resistance is the same days previous high which is point A.



Todays trades 11 Mar–1 winning trade (Avoided several losing trades )

Dear Readers

Markets did not show much of an action today and was choppy of whipsawing. Typically day traders lose money in such conditions.  Also, keep in mind the fact that choppy markets tend traders to do more trades than less resulting in more losses. So strict discipline and respect for levels is important to restrict trades on such a day.

I was mostly looking at the stocks and levels as per my pre-market analysis.

Today was one of the classic days if entry was made before 15-20 minutes of settling down, all trades would have been in a loss. This is the reason that I always recommend 15-20 minutes waiting before entering any trade. If Nifty direction is not certain as today, you can wait up to 30 minutes or more.

Nifty did not cross the level of 5975 which was the resistance in my weekly outlook. So there was not much
hopes for longs.

1. ICICI – ICICI started falling right from opening and went below the 1145 level and also touched 1130 levels. Stock was oscillating between my levels 1130 and 1145, so practically no trade was possible during the day.

2. SBI – SBI made a high of 2221 within 15 minutes of opening and never crossed that during the day. The stock was only falling after that. My buy above level was 2220 which was never crossed since then. So no trade possible there as well. Chart was similar to ICICI.

3. L&T – L&T was hit by a negative news before market open, but recovered smartly from days low and
crossed 1500 with style to hit 1518. I could enter above 1500 and booked close to 10 points.

4. Cipla – My buy above level was 393 which was hit and first level of 395 achieved within 20 min of market opening. So I could not trade this. Thereafter every time 393 was crossed, the stock hit 395 and retreated. MACD and RSI was mostly horizontal in 5 min chart, the breakouts were without any volume. Second attempt to cross 395 was faced with huge selling and the stock made a low of 388.

5. ONGC – I did not enter since the high made within 20 min of market opening was never crossed. At 09:50 my level of 328 was crossed from above and the stock never recovered. No trade here.

Trading Lessons Learned

1. Wait for markets to settle even if it means 30 minutes before jumping into any trades.
2. Support and Resistance - Same day’s high is an important resistance to be crossed for longs. Same day’s low is an important support to be broken for shorts.

I will be publishing calls for Tuesday soon after US Markets close. Tomorrow will be extremely difficult to make money either way because of news. But we can try based on levels.

Which stocks to trade today 11 March

Dear Readers
Please read my weekly outlook for the markets here.
Markets – What to expect next week 11 Mar

Sector Trends as of 08 March


All Sectors except PSU Bank, Metals and FMCG have become a buy in daily charts. All sectors are in buy mode in hourly charts.
On 11 March, I will have the following stocks in my watch list.

1. ICICI Bank. Buy above 1145 for a target of 1150. On crossing 1150, the stock could move up to 1163 levels. 1130 is the SL for all longs.
2. SBI – Buy above 2220 for a target of 2230 and above. If SBI sustains above the significant resistance of 2230, then 2260 is possible in coming days. 2200 is the SL for all longs.
3. L&T – Above 1500, 1524 is the target. SL for long is 1490.
4. Cipla – Above 393, 395, 397, 398 are the targets for today and next 2-3 days. SL is 389 is sustained below.
5. ONGC – Above 328, 331 is possible. Once long, maintain SL as 324.50.
Wish you a profitable trading day.
Any significant news which affects individual stocks or  overall market direction will invalidate the technical analysis behind the above views. In such a situation use real time charts to trade.
All the views and contents mentioned in this blog are the personal observations of the author and is in no way a recommendation for the readers to enter into trades of stocks/futures. The author do not accept any liability/loss resulting from the use of any content from this blog. Any act of trading performed by readers should be at their own discretion and neither the author or the sources mentioned in the blog will be responsible for the outcome.

Markets – What to expect next week 11 Mar

Dear Readers

We are staring at the following in front of us as we prepare for next week’s trading.

1. Our markets made a fantastic bounce back from the budget impact and is moving up consecutively for 3 days. Many people did not expect this bounce back and have missed the upmove.

2. US markets making record highs every day and Nifty is trying to catch up with the Dow.

3. News flow next week – IIP, Inflation, Advance Tax numbers.

Markets will be keenly watching the first two news events and take the clue.

If the clues are negative, still those who missed this upmove and waiting on sidelines are likely to jump in. So no big fall expected.

Interesting point here is that the IIP data – even if it is lower than the market expectations, it will be favorable to particularly sectors like banking which was rallying based on expectations from the Monetary policy review. Lower IIP data would raise the hopes of positive outcome from the review.

Inflation – no big expectations. As long as it is around the previous levels and below 7 no big impact on the market.

Positional traders could take clues from how your favorite companies are doing based on the Advance Tax numbers which are slated to be out on March 15.

March 19, we have the RBI Monetary policy review, markets are expecting 25 points repo rate cut, and is already rallying based on that.

As usual, my suggestion is to trade carefully on these news days. Allow the news flow to settle in (most of the announcements come at 11 AM IST) and then look at the charts and trade.

Nifty Weekly & Daily Chart Observations:

In Weekly Chart, Nifty formed a bullish engulfing candle similar to one in June 2012 which marked a major upmove since then. Will there be a similar upmove from now. Very difficult to predict. Depends on several factors including the primary one of Dow. If Dow corrects, Indian markets will fall.

In Daily chart, Nifty made a strong bounce from 200 EMA and started moving up after the budget impact. Nifty closed above 15,20 and 50 days EMA. MACD has given a bullish crossover. RSI crossed 50 from below. All indicators are not positive, we should see if MAs can make bullish crossovers to confirm the uptrend.

Key resistance levels according to me 5975 and 6000. Crossing above 6000 and staying there is bullish. Facing resistance at 6000 and down move will be negative to the markets. Expect a tough battle between bulls and bears in the zone 5975-6000. 5880 is the SL for all longs and market to turn bearish.

Stocks to watch next week:

I started covering ONGC in my daily trades, I am bullish on ONGC for next week. Second one is L&T. ICICI and SBI – I will still continue to trade on positive side. ITC, BPCL could also move up.

Sunday 10 March 2013

Todays Trades 08-Mar : 2 winning trades

1. Trade 1 – ICICI Bank – Successful Buy

20 min after days opening, I was looking for a buy above my level of 1128. However day’s high was acting as a resistance.
Finally when days high crossed, MACD was sloping down and never really made a bullish crossover, so I did not enter here. In few minutes ICICI fell down, but still above the SL for longs which was at 1112 . Finally second half, ICICI crossed the resistance with rounded bottom, MACD bullish cross, and upwards RSI. I entered and was luckily into the rally. Please click on the chart for more information.

Friday 8 March 2013

Why is market moving up – Understanding the Psychology

Dear Readers
Why is our market moving up continuously. All sectors are participating in this rally. If you remember, we had a catastrophic fall on the budget day and everyone was negative about the future. What changed now ?

Reason is simple. Lot of people went short in big numbers on the day of budget, thinking that it is the end of the world and Indian economy. Those who were wise bought the bottom on the budget day. Shorters are now trapped.

From that day SLs are triggering for the bears and this is keeping markets up. Shorters are trying to exit every downmove and that is more than enough to support this market at this point in time.

Again, I warn my readers not to trade based on a news. I had also written that markets will stabilize only in 2-3 days after budget and trend will emerge. This applies to all major news events.

As as example, if you look at L&T chart, lot of people went short on the budget day. The stock started moving up from next day and one by one, their SL levels are taken off and this is moving the stock  up. Some of the bears turned bulls, thinking that they can now make up for the loss if they reverse the position.

ONGC - Update

ONGC made a fantastic upmove above the level 323.50. Keep trailing to maximize the profits. 

Maruti - Showing upmove above days high. Intraday buy


Thursday 7 March 2013

Which stocks to trade 08 Mar

Dear Readers
Markets made a strong recovery today with Nifty moving up more than 45 points and Sensex by 161 points. Quick look at the technical view of sectors.
All sectors except metal are green in hourly charts. Today most of the metal stocks including Tata Steel, Sail, Hindalco, JSW Steel were down, so the sector ended up in red. Avoid trading this sector till there is a trend.
Pharma is still strong in hourly and daily charts, Cipla and Sun Pharma were positive today while Ranbaxy and Biocon ended in red. Cipla is a good choice for buy side.
IT sector is also very strong. As anticipated in my previous posts, this sector is rallying. Infosys, TCS, Wipro, HCL all are rallying.
Auto sector has started moving up, I am inclined to add one stock from this sector for trading. Today Hero Honda was up by 4% and Maruti , Bajaj Auto up more than 1%.
Tomorrow being Friday, weekly traders will tend to take profits. So be watchful on the longs during the second half of the day.
As usual, please wait for 15-20 minutes after market open, look at the combination of the levels and chart signals and trade.

Todays trades 07 Mar –2 winning trades

Readers

Today was a good day to trade with minimal volatility. Nifty was mostly stagnating the whole day and started rallying in the last two hours .Such days are good for intraday traders, since they get a chance to watch stocks for a long time and can buy or sell the stocks which are moving in the direction of Nifty breakout.

1. Trade 1 – ICICI Bank – Successful Buy

ICICI, my buy level as per pre-market call was above 1110. ICICI was range bound most of the day, but never fell below the pivot. There was also a rounded bottom at pivot before the breakout. I bought above 1110 and sold with close to 8 points profit.

Cipla - Update

Cipla showing consolidation and breakout attempt. It is a buy above days high sustain. 

ICICI–Update

ICICI consolidating above pivot, watchout and enter on break of days high.

Cipla–Update

Cipla in todays trade , crossed the pivot from below and is now above my level of 385. If the stock sustains here  then it will shoot up.

Which stocks to trade–07 Mar ICICI, SBI, Reliance, Cipla, BHEL

On 07Feb, markets could pause a bit after the run up for two days. Below levels will not work if the overall market direction is indecisive. In such a situation, look at charts and trade. Buy only if trend is up after 15-20 min of opening. Sell if trend is down.

All individual stock movements should be correlated with Nifty movement. Buy the stocks if Nifty is moving up and sell (only 1 sell recommendation  on BHEL) if Nifty is moving down.

1. ICICI – Bullish MACD crossover in daily charts. RSI and Stochastics have given buy signal in daily charts. Stock is likely to move up further. Buy above 1110 only. For longs SL could be maintained at 1095.

2. SBI – The stock made a good consolidation today and moved with high volumes above 2160-70 levels. Buy above 2175 with SL at 2160.

3. Reliance – Short term target of 860 looks still feasible. Buy above 840 with SL at 833.

4. Cipla – Cipla is bouncing from daily pivot levels for the past 2 consecutive trading days. I still believe there is strength in this stock. MACD made a positive crossover in daily charts and RSI is attempting to rise above 50 in daily charts. For tomorrow’s intraday trade, buy above 384 and sell if the stock sustains below 381 convincingly. 381 will be the SL for long trades as well.

5. BHEL – I recommend a sell in BHEL if Nifty looks tired and is trending down. Sell below 199 with SL above 203. Aggressive SL will be 205. I am giving this sell recommendation since the momentum is very less for BHEL in daily charts and 205 is a strong resistance. 199 is today’s low. Selling below that level will be a good strategy if overall market is also in sell mode. 

Charts are your real time friends which will help you to trade. Carefully observe the charts to enter / exit your trades. Buy on positive signals and sell when the charts show negative signals. Combine this with the levels above, you will definitely make profits.

Some basic tips on charts below.

When to Buy ?

In 5 min chart – MACD bullish crossover while the candles are above 5 min, 20 min EMAs, RSI pointing up, Stochastics in buy mode.

When to Sell ?

In 5 min chart – MACD bearish crossover while the candles are below 5 min, 20 min EMAs, RSI pointing down, Stochastics in sell mode.

For more details, visit my real trades posted before to understand how these signals look like in charts.

Wish you good luck for the trading tomorrow.

Todays trades 06 Mar –3 winning and 1 losing trade

Readers
Today was a good day and most of the stocks went in the expected direction. Summarizing my trades below.


1. Trade 1 –Tata Steel – Success. In my pre-market analysis, I was looking at a buy signal above 346. Stock moved down after opening and then crossed this level which was the day’s high as well. Exited with good profits. Please click on the chart to see the entry and exit points.

2. Trade 2 – L&T – Success. L&T was up today after market opening, consolidated at day’s high and started moving up. Please click on the chart to see the trade.

Wednesday 6 March 2013

Which stocks to trade 06 Mar–Tata Steel, ICICI, L&T, Reliance

Readers
A good rally on markets today based on the optimism from around the world on economic recovery measures and hopes of favorable outcome from RBI monetary policy later this month. Banks primarily rallied due to this.
 
Global markets are positive and at the timing of writing this Dow is rallying by more than 125 points.
 
As I wrote yesterday in yesterday’s pre-market call, ICICI and SBI rose along with banking sector as a whole. IT is still strong, TCS, HCL Technologies all could go up, Infosys is showing some weakness. In Pharma space, Cipla could further move up.

Tata Steel and Reliance rebounded from the lows as expected and could begin a new uptrend which will be confirmed based on tomorrow’s market.
Read my posts indicating up move of Tata Steel and Reliance
 

Tuesday 5 March 2013

Todays trades 05 Mar–3 winning trades

Readers, today was a very rewarding day with all trades going successful. Basically , I followed my own pre-market levels and traded based on the charts. For the purpose of educating the readers, I have included charts for the trades.
Please read the pre-market calls first and then proceed below.

Which stocks to trade on 05 Feb
This will give you an understanding of how you combine levels and charts for trading. Levels are support/resistance from charts in the last few sessions, pivot points etc.

1. Trade 1 – Tata Steel (Success).

I was expecting a bounce back in Tata Steel today as per my analysis here.
Tata Steel started falling after open and crossed the pivot below. However it made a rounded bottom which is a very bullish sign and recovered. Crossed the pivot from below and sustained.
Crossing the pivot from below is an extremely bullish sign.
Markets was extremely bullish and the candles never went below the 20 MA line.  So the position was held till end for maximising profits.

2. Trade 2 – L&T (Success)


L&T, basically respected the levels from last few days. L&T started falling after open and went below the daily pivot (blue line) , but recovered and crossed above the pivot.
Crossing the pivot from below is an extremely bullish sign.
I entered here and was long mostly till end of the session.
However L&T did not cross 1400 which would have triggered further rally.

3. Trade 3 – Cipla (Success)


Cipla started falling continuously after market opening and hit the low of 369.30. 369 was my SL for any long trades, which did not hit. I waited to see if the stock crosses days high. Finally , I entered long position when the stock crossed day’s high and MACD, RSI and SSTO gave buy in 5 min charts. Please see the entry and exit in the chart.

ICICI Bank – I avoided since the stock was gap up significantly above all the levels.

L&T - Will rally further above 1400

As written in the pre-market analysis, L&T will rally above 1400.

http://technicalanalysissimplified.blogspot.ch/2013/03/which-stocks-to-trade-on-05-feb.html

Which stocks to trade on 05 Mar

A quick look at the different sectors shows that Pharma is positive in hourly charts.
IT is bit confusing and is facing pressure on rise. However Infosys , TCS could rise today.
Banks are showing some strength, ICICI, SBI could rise today.
I would recommend the below watchlist for todays trading.
1. Tata Steel – Selling is advised only below 332-330. Buying is recommended only above 336.50 for potential target of 337-339-340/
2. L&T – Ready for a bounce back after continuous fall. Buy above 1375 for a target of 1390-1400. Above 1400, L&T will rally.
3. ICICI Bank – Positive above 1060. Above 1070, the stock could touch 1095
3. Cipla - How to trade Cipla – 05 March

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