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Technical Analysis Simplified

The objective of this website is to introduce simple mechanisms for trading based on Technical Analysis. Understanding the market psychology, following a trading system consistently, entering and exiting trades in a disciplined manner all is essential for making consistent profits

IS THIS YET ANOTHER PAID TIPS SITE ?

Dear Readers, this is a purely non-profit initiative and will never become a paid site. Primary objective is to share as much information as possible from real life trading experience to help small traders earn consistently in the market.

Monday 30 September 2013

Nifty Technical Analysis and Intraday Calls for Sep 30

Nifty Technical Analysis
Nifty is currently at its crucial support levels as we have been writing here. Breaking 5800-5770 and staying below will not be a good sign for Nifty. Below these levels 5740, Nifty could touch 5680. Near term rResistance is placed at 6090-6100 levels.

200 DMA for Nifty is placed at 5833 and Nifty closed near this position. Staying below this level continuously will be another indication of next leg of downfall. However, shorters be aware that because of expected political outcomes in India, markets could rally on hopes before elections.



For Intraday trading on Sep 30, upside will continue only if Nifty stays above 5920 level. Mild bullishness expected above 5860 and 5880 levels. Do not hold any long positions if Nifty falls below 5800. 

Intraday Calls for Sep 30


Notes:

1 Buy Above or Sell Below the levels given for a target T1 or T2 with SL  
2 Do not enter if target is achieved already     
3 Always trade in two lots and book 1 lot at T1  
4 All levels above are in cash. Please trade accordingly in futures  

Please take positions only after 9:30 AM. Please do not enter into any fresh trades after 3:00 PM.Please do not trade blindly on these levels. A buy position should be supported by charts giving positive signals. A sell position should be supported by charts giving negative signals. Please see real trades in earlier posts to understand how an intraday long or short is created.     


Any significant news which affects individual stocks or overall market direction will invalidate the technical analysis behind the above views. In such a situation use real time charts to trade.

All the views and contents mentioned in this blog are the personal observations of the author and is in no way a recommendation for the readers to enter into trades of stocks/futures. The author do not accept any liability/loss resulting from the use of any content from this blog. Any act of trading performed by readers should be at their own discretion and neither the author or the sources mentioned in the blog will be responsible for the outcome.

Subscribe for the posts in your favorite reader. Please click on the RSS button in the home page.

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Sunday 29 September 2013

Update 1 - Long Term Investment Portfolio

Review of long term investment portfolio advised in September.

Most of the stocks in the portfolio are in the buy zone. Those who have not bought the stocks yet, can follow the current recommendation to add the stocks to their portfolio. Please keep a watch on the Nifty levels. If Nifty crosses below 5800-70 range, then there is a very high chance of 200-300 points fall from there. That will be a good time to accumulate. 

Sensex gave a returns of close to -0.5%, while our portfolio gave a return of 1.8%. This is a long term portfolio, hence comparing on a monthly basis is not so relevant. 



For the original portfolio recommendation, please visit

Long Term Investment Portfolio

Saturday 28 September 2013

Did you check this week's profits made by our readers ?

This week's profits from 4 days of trading - Rs. 9,375/-

Sep 23 - 2000
Sep 24 - 4250
Sep 26 - 5000
Sep 27 - (1875)

We had only 3 out of 4 days in positive with a good weekly profit. Hope everyone enjoyed.

Review of today's ( Sep 27). We had a loss making day with only 1 call triggered in loss. 


Friday 27 September 2013

Nifty Technical Analysis and Intraday Calls for Sep 27

Nothing much has changed in Nifty charts based on yesterday's trading. As expected, Nifty was extremely volatile within a range. Clearly, there is resistance at higher levels. Base continues to be 5800-25 and resistance continues to be 5900-50 zone in the hourly charts.
 
 

 

For trading on Sep 27, Nifty will be positive above only above 5900 with a tough resistance at 5950 and 5980 levels. Going below 5860 will be quite negative for Nifty. Long unwindings will happen below this level.
 

Intraday Calls for Sep 27

 

Notes
 
1 Buy Above or Sell Below the levels given for a target T1 or T2 with SL  
2 Do not enter if target is achieved already     
3 Always trade in two lots and book 1 lot at T1  
4 All levels above are in cash. Please trade accordingly in futures     

Please take positions only after 9:30 AM. Please do not enter into any fresh trades after 3:00 PM.
 
Please do not trade blindly on these levels. A buy position should be supported by charts giving positive signals. A sell position should be supported by charts giving negative signals. Please see real trades in earlier posts to understand how an intraday long or short is created.     


 
Any significant news which affects individual stocks or overall market direction will invalidate the technical analysis behind the above views. In such a situation use real time charts to trade.
 
All the views and contents mentioned in this blog are the personal observations of the author and is in no way a recommendation for the readers to enter into trades of stocks/futures. The author do not accept any liability/loss resulting from the use of any content from this blog. Any act of trading performed by readers should be at their own discretion and neither the author or the sources mentioned in the blog will be responsible for the outcome.
 
Subscribe for the posts in your favorite reader. Please click on the RSS button in the home page.
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Thursday 26 September 2013

Today’s Profits, Sep 26–Rs. 5000/-

We had 3 out of 3 calls success, despite the huge volatility.
Tata Motors hit 347.30 , just close to second target.


INtraday Calls for Sep 26

Nifty Technical Analysis and Intraday calls for Sep 26

Readers

Nifty is facing resistance in the zone 5900-5950 in the hourly charts. This zone needs to be cleared to to resume the short term uptrend. In the daily charts, Nifty has shown a bullish hammer pattern based on today's price movement. This gives me a feeling that further selling in Nifty is unlikely to happen in the coming days. Todays Nifty performance will confirm if this view is correct. 

We have been tracking the base of 5800 for some time now. If the level of 5800- 5780 is broken convincingly, then the slightly longer term down trend will be confirmed. 

For trading on Sep 26, Nifty will be positive only above 5920-30 levels. Below 5860, Nifty will be negative with the next support at 5800-25 levels. High volatility and fluctuation between 5800-900 is expected today. Aggressive traders can consider buying at 5800-25 levels and selling at 5900-20 levels. 

Wednesday 25 September 2013

Today's profits - Sep 24 , Rs. 4250/-

We had 3 out of 4 calls in profit from pre-market calls today. Hope everyone made profits. 

ScripActionAboveBelowT1T2SLTargetLot sizeProfit
MarutiBuy1415142014251398T22502500
Hero MotorsBuy2015202420351998X
Tata SteelBuy296.5298300293.5SL1000-3000
RelianceBuy877882886872T12501250
Bharti AirtelSell333.5332330336.5T210003500
CiplaSell421419417424X
SBINSell1625161516051645X
ONGCSell274272270280.5X
Tata MotorsSell330328326334.5X
4250

Tuesday 24 September 2013

Nifty Technical Analysis and Intraday calls for Sep 24

Nifty continued its down move yesterday 5880-70 range where it got a support. Today this will be the support followed by 5850-40 range where Nifty has a significant support. If this support is broken next target is 5800. Breaking 5800 will open up 5700 in next few days.

Intraday calls for Sep 24


Scrip Action Above Below T1 T2 SL
Maruti Buy 1415 1420 1425 1398
Hero Motors Buy 2015 2024 2035 1998
Tata Steel Buy 296.5 298 300 293.5
Reliance Buy 877 882 886 872
Bharti Airtel Sell 333.5 332 330 336.5
Cipla Sell 421 419 417 424
SBIN Sell 1625 1615 1605 1645
ONGC Sell 274 272 270 280.5
Tata Motors Sell 330 328 326 334.5

Notes
1 Buy Above or Sell Below the levels given for a target T1 or T2 with SL
2 Do not enter if target is achieved already
3 Always trade in two lots and book 1 lot at T1
4 All levels above are in cash. Please trade accordingly in futures

Please take positions only after 9:30 AM. Please do not enter into any fresh trades after 3:00 PM.

Please do not trade blindly on these levels. A buy position should be supported by charts giving positive signals. A sell position should be supported by charts giving negative signals. Please see real trades in earlier posts to understand how an intraday long or short is created.     


Any significant news which affects individual stocks or overall market direction will invalidate the technical analysis behind the above views. In such a situation use real time charts to trade.

All the views and contents mentioned in this blog are the personal observations of the author and is in no way a recommendation for the readers to enter into trades of stocks/futures. The author do not accept any liability/loss resulting from the use of any content from this blog. Any act of trading performed by readers should be at their own discretion and neither the author or the sources mentioned in the blog will be responsible for the outcome.

Subscribe for the posts in your favorite reader. Please click on the RSS button in the home page.
To get email updates, subscribe by clicking Subscribe via email.

Today's profits Sep 23 Rs. 2000/-

It is always better to trade less and finally end up with profits even if it is small. Only one call triggered from the pre-market calls which gave a small profit. As day traders we should practice sitting in front of the terminal without a temptation to trade. This is also an important aspect to make money in the markets. You need to wait may be the major part of the day, then get into a right trade and take money out of it. This will make you a smart trader. If you feel tempted to buy stocks which are moving up and sell the ones which are falling without a scientific basis, then you are bound to lose your entire capital in a short time !! 


Monday 23 September 2013

Nifty Technical Analysis and Intraday calls for Sep 23

After such a fall on Friday, it is very difficult to predict the levels and calls for today. Overall, the sentiment is likely to be bearish. Attempts to recover will be faced with selling.

Immediate resistances are placed  at 6040. Any upmove above 6040 will face resistance at 6060-90 maximum. Heavy selling expected at 6060 and 6090. Support will be at 5970. Below this , market could fall by 50 points today. Please look at the level and trade carefully.

Sunday 22 September 2013

This week's profit on pre-market calls Rs. 28,625/-

Saturday 21 September 2013

Today's profits Rs. 5,250/-

Despite the huge volatality and market crash, we made money on pre-market calls. See below.


Friday 20 September 2013

Nifty Technical Analysis and Intraday calls for Sep 20

Nifty did a gap up yesterday, despite this , there were several Opening Range Breakout trades possible on L&T, Tata Steel, ONGC etc. Nifty has crossed the crucial resistance of 6100 which is a good sign. This will be the next base for up move. 6300 is a technically possible target in the next few days. 

For today's trading, Nifty should cross 6150-60 convincingly for the next target of 6200. Support is placed at 6090.

We have another difficult day today due to RBI Monetary policy and volatality. Do not trade in the banking sector till the news is out and there is stability. Else stop losses will be hit on both sides. Also do not react to sudden upmove or downmove in stocks and enter trades either on the buy or sell side thinking that you are about to miss a big move. Markets will give enough opportunities to all to make money.

As I have written many times before, please learn technical analysis thoroughly rather than just following my calls. All readers should be able to follow my blog and trade on their own and make money. 

Intraday calls for Sep 20


Notes
1 Buy Above or Sell Below the levels given for a target T1 or T2 with SL
2 Do not enter if target is achieved already
3 Always trade in two lots and book 1 lot at T1
4 All levels above are in cash. Please trade accordingly in futures

Please take positions only after 9:30 AM. Please do not enter into any fresh trades after 3:00 PM.

Please do not trade blindly on these levels. A buy position should be supported by charts giving positive signals. A sell position should be supported by charts giving negative signals. Please see real trades in earlier posts to understand how an intraday long or short is created.     


Any significant news which affects individual stocks or overall market direction will invalidate the technical analysis behind the above views. In such a situation use real time charts to trade.

All the views and contents mentioned in this blog are the personal observations of the author and is in no way a recommendation for the readers to enter into trades of stocks/futures. The author do not accept any liability/loss resulting from the use of any content from this blog. Any act of trading performed by readers should be at their own discretion and neither the author or the sources mentioned in the blog will be responsible for the outcome.

Subscribe for the posts in your favorite reader. Please click on the RSS button in the home page.
To get email updates, subscribe by clicking Subscribe via email.

Maruti Technical Analysis–Swing target achieved

We wrote about Maruti on Sep 17 here and given an indication to buy above 1400
Maruti Technical Analysis

On crossing 1400, Maruti touched 1502 today. Readers can book partial profits. Next target is 1550-80.





Thursday 19 September 2013

Nifty Technical Analysis and Stocks to trade on Sep 19

Readers

Today will be a gap up day for Nifty. Yesterday's last hour move of Nifty was a clear indication of this up move. Technically Nifty looks very strong.

First target for today's up move is 5965. If this level crossed, then Nifty will touch 6000 which is the next resistance level. Crossing above 6020 will establish a mega bullish trend with the next resistance placed at 6050-6100.


For today, I will not be able to provide any pre-market levels, since these will not work for  gap up days. I request traders to use our trading systems to trade today.

Opening Range Breakout Trading
Intraday Trading System

Following stocks looks good for long trades.

1. Maruti - We covered Maruti in yesterdays analysis for positional buy. 1450-500 target is possible in next few sessions.
2. Axis Bank-
3. SBI
3. L&T
4. Reliance
5. SBI

Please keep the following points in mind.

  1. First 15-30 minutes will be of high euphoria and do not jump in and buy. If the gap up is very high, then the highs made in 30 minutes are unlikely to be taken out for index and many stocks. Hence follow 30 minutes / 60 minutes ORB carefully to enter trades. 
  2. Heavy profit booking is expected at 6090-6100 levels. 
Wish you good luck for the day. 


Wednesday 18 September 2013

Another day of profits Rs.6250/-

Readers

We had another day of profits in pre-market calls. Nifty behaved exactly as written in the Technical Analysis. As soon as 5870 was crossed in the second half of the day, the rally started hitting a top of 5916. This is a good sign for next few days.

Maruti, moved as per expectations and looks good for positional trading on the long side.

Nifty Technical Analysis and Intraday Calls

We had 3 out of 3 calls success and gave us good profits. Hope everyone benefitted from the calls. Please see below.


Nifty Technical Analysis and Intraday calls for Sep 18

Nifty was range bound today and was able to stay above the critical level of 5800-20. This will be the support, below which markets will be bearish. Upward momentum will be good if Nifty crossed 5870 and stays there. Targets are 5890-5900 followed by 5925.

In yesterday's pre-market calls, we made profits despite the range bound and volatality. Maruti is quite positive for short term in the charts. Swing traders can enter above 1400 for a target of 1450-1500 with an SL at 1335.


Intraday calls for Sep 18 


Today's profits Rs. 3250/- Sep 17

Review of today's calls. Despite range bound and volatile market, we had 3 out of 5 calls success. Hope readers enjoyed the calls.


Tuesday 17 September 2013

Nifty Outlook and stocks to trade today - Sep 17

Let me start with Nifty behavior and overall market behavior yesterday (Sep 16). 

Nifty spiked in the morning and touched 5960. In the first 1 hour Nifty tried to cross this level, but could not. However I saw that many brokers started giving buy calls in DLF, BHEL, Axis Bank and ICICI Bank. This was surprising since a high was already made previously in the day and the market was struggling to cross it. Finally the critical level of 5880 was broken and Nifty touched the support level of 5800. The level was held today, however , Nifty went below 5800 for a small amount of time which is an matter of concern. 

State Bank of India and Tata Steel corrected and gave us good profits in our pre-market calls. Bharti Airtel is still going strong. 

Sector Trend: IT is clearly the weakest sector, yesterday we made good profits in TCS and Infosys sell calls. In hourly charts, most of the sectors are in strong sell mode. We will trade accordingly for intraday today. 

Nifty will face resistance at 5900 followed by 5950. Nifty will be negative below 5850. Support is placed at 5800-5820 levels. Below 5800, exit all long positions.. 

Intraday calls for Sep 15

Notes
1 Buy Above or Sell Below the levels given for a target T1 or T2 with SL
2 Do not enter if target is achieved already
3 Always trade in two lots and book 1 lot at T1

4 All levels above are in cash. Please trade accordingly in futures

Please take positions only after 9:30 AM. Please do not enter into any fresh trades after 3:00 PM.

Please do not trade blindly on these levels. A buy position should be supported by charts giving positive signals. A sell position should be supported by charts giving negative signals. Please see real trades in earlier posts to understand how an intraday long or short is created.     


Any significant news which affects individual stocks or overall market direction will invalidate the technical analysis behind the above views. In such a situation use real time charts to trade.

All the views and contents mentioned in this blog are the personal observations of the author and is in no way a recommendation for the readers to enter into trades of stocks/futures. The author do not accept any liability/loss resulting from the use of any content from this blog. Any act of trading performed by readers should be at their own discretion and neither the author or the sources mentioned in the blog will be responsible for the outcome.

Subscribe for the posts in your favorite reader. Please click on the RSS button in the home page.
To get email updates, subscribe by clicking Subscribe via email.

Monday 16 September 2013

Today's profit on pre-market calls Rs. 13,875/-

Readers

Today, most of our sell calls triggered and gave us handsome profits while the markets did a U turn. We have 5/5 calls success today. Hope everyone enjoyed the calls. Please see the results below:


Nifty Outlook and Stocks to trade on Sep 16

Next week awaits plenty of news flow and it will be extremely difficult to take money from the market unless you are on the right side of the trade. Because of this reason, I am not recommending any weekly picks this week. Those who are holding to our last week picks, should hold SBI and Bharti Airtel with SL. SBI advance tax numbers from today are not great. Bharti Airtel looks strong. Tata Steel is not giving confusing signals, hence better to exit around 300 levels.

Monday - WPI Inflation will be announced at 12 PM IST. 
Tuesday, Wednesday - FOMC Meeting 
Friday - RBI Monetary policy review

On Monday and Friday, please do not hold any open intraday positions around the time the news is announced. Markets will be extremely volatile and SL will be hit in both directions.

Sector Trend: Reality, PSU Bank and Infrastructure are strong in charts. Pharma, Metal and IT are weakening.


Nifty was very choppy on Friday Sep 13. To resume upward journey, Nifty should cross 5900-30 range convincingly. As of now, this looks to be a significant resistance. Nifty will be positive above 5880 and negative below 5850. On the lower side, 5800-20 range is acting as a strong support which we have been tracking for the past two days. If this support is broken, then Nifty will slide to 5700 easily. 

Intraday Calls for Sep 16

Sunday 15 September 2013

Opening Range Breakout Trading System - Will it work for any market in the world ?

Yes, Opening Range Breakout Trading system is used by many traders across the globe to reap fortunes from the market. The key is to have a clear system in place and follow it consistently.
For those who have not read the Opening Range Breakout Trading course, please click on the link below.

Opening Range Breakout Trading System

Based on the request from the readers in US, providing two examples of Opening Range Breakout Trading system applied to Boeing and Microsoft Stocks intraday on Sep 13.

Opening Range Breakout Trade on Boeing


Opening Range Breakout Trade on Microsoft


Getting the best out of Opening Range Breakout Trading System

Readers

Last week I wrote about trading the trend using Opening Range Breakout System considering 60 min as the range. Today, I will take few examples from my own trades on Sep 13 to give more insights into different scenarios.

Those who have not seen my earlier posts on these , please click on the below links to see the chapters from the Trading Course.

1. Opening Range Breakout System

2. How to Trade with the Trend


1. DLF - Where the stock reversed back into the opening range after the breakout. This example illustrates the importance of profit booking immediately after the breakout and keeping appropriate Stop losses. The same example shows how to trade a 60 min breakout.

2. BHEL - Where the breakout happened after 60 min. This trade again illustrates the fact that all rules of opening range breakout trading has to be followed to enter into a trade. The stock gave a false 30 min breakout, since the 5 min EMA never crossed above the opening range, technically, it was not possible to enter the trade. However 60 min , gave  a good breakout trade.

3. Infosys - Excellent example of opening range breakout sell after consolidation. I have wrote about consolidation and its importance several times in this blog. Infosys gave a good consolidation and breakdown for intraday trading on Sep 13.

Please click on the links below to see my previous posts on consolidation.

Power of Consolidation - TCS

Will you trade spikes or consolidation ?

Bharti Airtel - Consolidation example.

Real Trade 1 - DLF


Real Trade 2 - BHEL


Real Trade 3 - Infosys




Friday 13 September 2013

Did you make Rs. 21,000/- this week in the markets ?

Markets were very volatile and range bound today. Still we ended in minimal profits. This week from pre-market calls readers made Rs. 21,825 !!. Hope everyone benefited from the calls.

Sep 13 - 1000/-
Sep 12 - 10,625/-
Sep 11 - 4750/-
Sep 10 - 5450/-

Total - 21,825/-

Summary of today's calls (Sep 13)




Nifty outlook and stocks to trade on Sep 13

We wrote about the level 5880 yesterday and going below this took Nifty down heavily. Nifty today touched below our critical level of 5825, however bounced back. Going below 5825 was definitely not a good sign. However the better than expected IIP data could save the markets from another fall tomorrow.

Going forward, day trading will be very tough for the next few days due to volatality and unpredictable moves. We will try our best to filter our calls and be profitable.

The resistance mentioned yesterday 5950-80 still holds good and will be a significant one for the markets to cross. This followed by 6000-6020 will be tough resistances.

For tomorrow's trading, exit all longs if market is below 5825. Nifty below 5800 will confirm the down move. On the upside, the next resistance is 5850-70. If this crossed, then Nifty could go up to 5900-20. Profit booking will come at 5950 levels. Please book profits whenever T1 is achieved and hold on to the second lot with stoploss revised to entry price.

Sector Trend: In hourly charts - IT and Auto has given sell signals. We were expecting this weakness for past 2-3 days and hence trying to short TCS. Today we had a good sell on TCS. However HCL is not showing this weakness.


Intraday Calls for Sep 13


Thursday 12 September 2013

Todays trades profit Rs. 10,625/-

As written in the pre-market calls, Nifty going below 5880 resulted in extreme weakness for the market and significant profit booking was seen. Most of our sell calls gave good results today. We had 5 / 7 calls sucess.

Please see below.

Scrip Action Above Below T1 T2 SL Target Lot size Profit
Tata Steel Buy 315 317 320 310      T1 1000 2000
SBI Buy 1700 1720 1740 1685      SL Hit 125 -1875
ICICI Buy 980 985 990 970      X
Reliance  Buy 896 900 905 885      T1 250 1000
DLF Buy 153 155 157 150      X
L&T Buy 823 827 832 814      T1 375 1500
Hero Motor Sell 2090 2080 2070 2112      X
Cipla Sell 435 432 429 437      X
Tata Motors Sell 334 332 330 337      SL Hit 1000 -3000
TCS Sell 1978 1965 1950 1990      T2 250 7000
ONGC Sell 288 286 284 290     X 1000 4000
10625


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