September 2013 ~ Technical Analysis Simplified

Monday, 30 September 2013

Nifty Technical Analysis and Intraday Calls for Sep 30

9/30/2013 02:23:00 am Unknown 1 comment

Nifty Technical Analysis

Nifty is currently at its crucial support levels as we have been writing here. Breaking 5800-5770 and staying below will not be a good sign for Nifty. Below these levels 5740, Nifty could touch 5680. Near term rResistance is placed at 6090-6100 levels.

200 DMA for Nifty is placed at 5833 and Nifty closed near this position. Staying below this level continuously will be another indication of next leg of downfall. However, shorters be aware that because of expected political outcomes in India, markets could rally on hopes before elections.

For Intraday trading on Sep 30, upside will continue only if Nifty stays above 5920 level. Mild bullishness expected above 5860 and 5880 levels. Do not hold any long positions if Nifty falls below 5800.

Intraday Calls for Sep 30

Notes:

1 Buy Above or Sell Below the levels given for a target T1 or T2 with SL
2 Do not enter if target is achieved already

3 Always trade in two lots and book 1 lot at T1
4 All levels above are in cash. Please trade accordingly in futures

Please take positions only after 9:30 AM. Please do not enter into any fresh trades after 3:00 PM.Please do not trade blindly on these levels. A buy position should be supported by charts giving positive signals. A sell position should be supported by charts giving negative signals. Please see real trades in earlier posts to understand how an intraday long or short is created.

Real Trades Update

Trading Videos

Any significant news which affects individual stocks or overall market direction will invalidate the technical analysis behind the above views. In such a situation use real time charts to trade.

All the views and contents mentioned in this blog are the personal observations of the author and is in no way a recommendation for the readers to enter into trades of stocks/futures. The author do not accept any liability/loss resulting from the use of any content from this blog. Any act of trading performed by readers should be at their own discretion and neither the author or the sources mentioned in the blog will be responsible for the outcome.

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Update 1 - Long Term Investment Portfolio

9/29/2013 02:31:00 am Unknown 2 comments

Review of long term investment portfolio advised in September.

Most of the stocks in the portfolio are in the buy zone. Those who have not bought the stocks yet, can follow the current recommendation to add the stocks to their portfolio. Please keep a watch on the Nifty levels. If Nifty crosses below 5800-70 range, then there is a very high chance of 200-300 points fall from there. That will be a good time to accumulate.

Sensex gave a returns of close to -0.5%, while our portfolio gave a return of 1.8%. This is a long term portfolio, hence comparing on a monthly basis is not so relevant.

For the original portfolio recommendation, please visit

Long Term Investment Portfolio

Did you check this week's profits made by our readers ?

9/28/2013 12:07:00 am Unknown No comments

This week's profits from 4 days of trading - Rs. 9,375/-

Sep 23 - 2000

Sep 24 - 4250

Sep 26 - 5000

Sep 27 - (1875)

We had only 3 out of 4 days in positive with a good weekly profit. Hope everyone enjoyed.

Review of today's ( Sep 27). We had a loss making day with only 1 call triggered in loss.

Nifty Technical Analysis and Intraday Calls for Sep 27

9/27/2013 01:07:00 am Unknown 1 comment

Nothing much has changed in Nifty charts based on yesterday's trading. As expected, Nifty was extremely volatile within a range. Clearly, there is resistance at higher levels. Base continues to be 5800-25 and resistance continues to be 5900-50 zone in the hourly charts.

For trading on Sep 27, Nifty will be positive above only above 5900 with a tough resistance at 5950 and 5980 levels. Going below 5860 will be quite negative for Nifty. Long unwindings will happen below this level.

Intraday Calls for Sep 27

Notes

1 Buy Above or Sell Below the levels given for a target T1 or T2 with SL

2 Do not enter if target is achieved already

3 Always trade in two lots and book 1 lot at T1

4 All levels above are in cash. Please trade accordingly in futures

Please take positions only after 9:30 AM. Please do not enter into any fresh trades after 3:00 PM.

Please do not trade blindly on these levels. A buy position should be supported by charts giving positive signals. A sell position should be supported by charts giving negative signals. Please see real trades in earlier posts to understand how an intraday long or short is created.

Real Trades Update

Trading Videos

Any significant news which affects individual stocks or overall market direction will invalidate the technical analysis behind the above views. In such a situation use real time charts to trade.

Subscribe for the posts in your favorite reader. Please click on the RSS button in the home page.

To get email updates, subscribe by clicking Subscribe via email.

Today’s Profits, Sep 26–Rs. 5000/-

9/26/2013 05:39:00 pm Unknown No comments

We had 3 out of 3 calls success, despite the huge volatility.
Tata Motors hit 347.30 , just close to second target.

Nifty Technical Analysis and Intraday calls for Sep 26

9/26/2013 01:47:00 am Unknown No comments

Readers

Nifty is facing resistance in the zone 5900-5950 in the hourly charts. This zone needs to be cleared to to resume the short term uptrend. In the daily charts, Nifty has shown a bullish hammer pattern based on today's price movement. This gives me a feeling that further selling in Nifty is unlikely to happen in the coming days. Todays Nifty performance will confirm if this view is correct.

We have been tracking the base of 5800 for some time now. If the level of 5800- 5780 is broken convincingly, then the slightly longer term down trend will be confirmed.

For trading on Sep 26, Nifty will be positive only above 5920-30 levels. Below 5860, Nifty will be negative with the next support at 5800-25 levels. High volatility and fluctuation between 5800-900 is expected today. Aggressive traders can consider buying at 5800-25 levels and selling at 5900-20 levels.

Today's profits - Sep 24 , Rs. 4250/-

9/25/2013 02:33:00 am Unknown No comments

We had 3 out of 4 calls in profit from pre-market calls today. Hope everyone made profits.

Scrip	Action	Above	Below	T1	T2	SL	Target	Lot size	Profit
Maruti	Buy	1415		1420	1425	1398	T2	250	2500
Hero Motors	Buy	2015		2024	2035	1998	X
Tata Steel	Buy	296.5		298	300	293.5	SL	1000	-3000
Reliance	Buy	877		882	886	872	T1	250	1250
Bharti Airtel	Sell		333.5	332	330	336.5	T2	1000	3500
Cipla	Sell		421	419	417	424	X
SBIN	Sell		1625	1615	1605	1645	X
ONGC	Sell		274	272	270	280.5	X
Tata Motors	Sell		330	328	326	334.5	X
									4250

Nifty Technical Analysis and Intraday calls for Sep 24

9/24/2013 09:01:00 am Unknown No comments

Nifty continued its down move yesterday 5880-70 range where it got a support. Today this will be the support followed by 5850-40 range where Nifty has a significant support. If this support is broken next target is 5800. Breaking 5800 will open up 5700 in next few days.

Intraday calls for Sep 24

Scrip	Action	Above	Below	T1	T2	SL
Maruti	Buy		1415	1420	1425	1398
Hero Motors	Buy		2015	2024	2035	1998
Tata Steel	Buy		296.5	298	300	293.5
Reliance	Buy		877	882	886	872
Bharti Airtel	Sell		333.5	332	330	336.5
Cipla	Sell		421	419	417	424
SBIN	Sell		1625	1615	1605	1645
ONGC	Sell		274	272	270	280.5
Tata Motors	Sell		330	328	326	334.5

Notes

1 Buy Above or Sell Below the levels given for a target T1 or T2 with SL

2 Do not enter if target is achieved already

3 Always trade in two lots and book 1 lot at T1

4 All levels above are in cash. Please trade accordingly in futures

Please take positions only after 9:30 AM. Please do not enter into any fresh trades after 3:00 PM.

Real Trades Update

Trading Videos

Any significant news which affects individual stocks or overall market direction will invalidate the technical analysis behind the above views. In such a situation use real time charts to trade.

Subscribe for the posts in your favorite reader. Please click on the RSS button in the home page.

To get email updates, subscribe by clicking Subscribe via email.

Today's profits Sep 23 Rs. 2000/-

9/24/2013 01:54:00 am Unknown No comments

It is always better to trade less and finally end up with profits even if it is small. Only one call triggered from the pre-market calls which gave a small profit. As day traders we should practice sitting in front of the terminal without a temptation to trade. This is also an important aspect to make money in the markets. You need to wait may be the major part of the day, then get into a right trade and take money out of it. This will make you a smart trader. If you feel tempted to buy stocks which are moving up and sell the ones which are falling without a scientific basis, then you are bound to lose your entire capital in a short time !!

Nifty Technical Analysis and Intraday calls for Sep 23

9/23/2013 02:39:00 am Unknown 1 comment

After such a fall on Friday, it is very difficult to predict the levels and calls for today. Overall, the sentiment is likely to be bearish. Attempts to recover will be faced with selling.

Immediate resistances are placed at 6040. Any upmove above 6040 will face resistance at 6060-90 maximum. Heavy selling expected at 6060 and 6090. Support will be at 5970. Below this , market could fall by 50 points today. Please look at the level and trade carefully.

This week's profit on pre-market calls Rs. 28,625/-

9/22/2013 12:10:00 pm Unknown No comments

Our readers made a profit of Rs. 28,625/- this week in markets in 4 days of trading.

20-Sep 5250
18-Sep 6250
17-Sep 3250
16-Sep 13875

Please click on the below links for more details.

http://www.technicalanalysissimplified.com/2013/09/todays-profits-rs-5250.html
http://www.technicalanalysissimplified.com/2013/09/another-day-of-profits-rs6250.html
http://www.technicalanalysissimplified.com/2013/09/todays-profits-rs-3250-sep-17.html
http://www.technicalanalysissimplified.com/2013/09/todays-profit-on-pre-market-calls-rs.html

Today's profits Rs. 5,250/-

9/21/2013 01:14:00 am Unknown No comments

Despite the huge volatality and market crash, we made money on pre-market calls. See below.

Nifty Technical Analysis and Intraday calls for Sep 20

9/20/2013 01:39:00 am Unknown 1 comment

Nifty did a gap up yesterday, despite this , there were several Opening Range Breakout trades possible on L&T, Tata Steel, ONGC etc. Nifty has crossed the crucial resistance of 6100 which is a good sign. This will be the next base for up move. 6300 is a technically possible target in the next few days.

For today's trading, Nifty should cross 6150-60 convincingly for the next target of 6200. Support is placed at 6090.

We have another difficult day today due to RBI Monetary policy and volatality. Do not trade in the banking sector till the news is out and there is stability. Else stop losses will be hit on both sides. Also do not react to sudden upmove or downmove in stocks and enter trades either on the buy or sell side thinking that you are about to miss a big move. Markets will give enough opportunities to all to make money.

As I have written many times before, please learn technical analysis thoroughly rather than just following my calls. All readers should be able to follow my blog and trade on their own and make money.

Intraday calls for Sep 20

Notes

1 Buy Above or Sell Below the levels given for a target T1 or T2 with SL

2 Do not enter if target is achieved already

3 Always trade in two lots and book 1 lot at T1

4 All levels above are in cash. Please trade accordingly in futures

Please take positions only after 9:30 AM. Please do not enter into any fresh trades after 3:00 PM.

Real Trades Update

Trading Videos

Any significant news which affects individual stocks or overall market direction will invalidate the technical analysis behind the above views. In such a situation use real time charts to trade.

Subscribe for the posts in your favorite reader. Please click on the RSS button in the home page.

To get email updates, subscribe by clicking Subscribe via email.

Maruti Technical Analysis–Swing target achieved

9/20/2013 12:56:00 am Unknown No comments

We wrote about Maruti on Sep 17 here and given an indication to buy above 1400
Maruti Technical Analysis

On crossing 1400, Maruti touched 1502 today. Readers can book partial profits. Next target is 1550-80.

Nifty Technical Analysis and Stocks to trade on Sep 19

9/19/2013 08:45:00 am Unknown No comments

Readers

Today will be a gap up day for Nifty. Yesterday's last hour move of Nifty was a clear indication of this up move. Technically Nifty looks very strong.

First target for today's up move is 5965. If this level crossed, then Nifty will touch 6000 which is the next resistance level. Crossing above 6020 will establish a mega bullish trend with the next resistance placed at 6050-6100.

For today, I will not be able to provide any pre-market levels, since these will not work for gap up days. I request traders to use our trading systems to trade today.

Opening Range Breakout Trading
Intraday Trading System

Following stocks looks good for long trades.

1. Maruti - We covered Maruti in yesterdays analysis for positional buy. 1450-500 target is possible in next few sessions.
2. Axis Bank-
3. SBI
3. L&T
4. Reliance
5. SBI

Please keep the following points in mind.

First 15-30 minutes will be of high euphoria and do not jump in and buy. If the gap up is very high, then the highs made in 30 minutes are unlikely to be taken out for index and many stocks. Hence follow 30 minutes / 60 minutes ORB carefully to enter trades.
Heavy profit booking is expected at 6090-6100 levels.

Wish you good luck for the day.

Another day of profits Rs.6250/-

9/18/2013 05:36:00 pm Unknown No comments

Readers

We had another day of profits in pre-market calls. Nifty behaved exactly as written in the Technical Analysis. As soon as 5870 was crossed in the second half of the day, the rally started hitting a top of 5916. This is a good sign for next few days.

Maruti, moved as per expectations and looks good for positional trading on the long side.

Nifty Technical Analysis and Intraday Calls

We had 3 out of 3 calls success and gave us good profits. Hope everyone benefitted from the calls. Please see below.

Nifty Technical Analysis and Intraday calls for Sep 18

9/18/2013 01:56:00 am Unknown 1 comment

Nifty was range bound today and was able to stay above the critical level of 5800-20. This will be the support, below which markets will be bearish. Upward momentum will be good if Nifty crossed 5870 and stays there. Targets are 5890-5900 followed by 5925.

In yesterday's pre-market calls, we made profits despite the range bound and volatality. Maruti is quite positive for short term in the charts. Swing traders can enter above 1400 for a target of 1450-1500 with an SL at 1335.

Intraday calls for Sep 18

Today's profits Rs. 3250/- Sep 17

9/18/2013 12:31:00 am Unknown No comments

Review of today's calls. Despite range bound and volatile market, we had 3 out of 5 calls success. Hope readers enjoyed the calls.

Nifty Outlook and stocks to trade today - Sep 17

9/17/2013 02:21:00 am Unknown 1 comment

Let me start with Nifty behavior and overall market behavior yesterday (Sep 16).

Nifty spiked in the morning and touched 5960. In the first 1 hour Nifty tried to cross this level, but could not. However I saw that many brokers started giving buy calls in DLF, BHEL, Axis Bank and ICICI Bank. This was surprising since a high was already made previously in the day and the market was struggling to cross it. Finally the critical level of 5880 was broken and Nifty touched the support level of 5800. The level was held today, however , Nifty went below 5800 for a small amount of time which is an matter of concern.

State Bank of India and Tata Steel corrected and gave us good profits in our pre-market calls. Bharti Airtel is still going strong.

Sector Trend: IT is clearly the weakest sector, yesterday we made good profits in TCS and Infosys sell calls. In hourly charts, most of the sectors are in strong sell mode. We will trade accordingly for intraday today.

Nifty will face resistance at 5900 followed by 5950. Nifty will be negative below 5850. Support is placed at 5800-5820 levels. Below 5800, exit all long positions..

Intraday calls for Sep 15

Notes

1 Buy Above or Sell Below the levels given for a target T1 or T2 with SL

2 Do not enter if target is achieved already

3 Always trade in two lots and book 1 lot at T1

4 All levels above are in cash. Please trade accordingly in futures

Please take positions only after 9:30 AM. Please do not enter into any fresh trades after 3:00 PM.

Real Trades Update

Trading Videos

Any significant news which affects individual stocks or overall market direction will invalidate the technical analysis behind the above views. In such a situation use real time charts to trade.

Subscribe for the posts in your favorite reader. Please click on the RSS button in the home page.

To get email updates, subscribe by clicking Subscribe via email.

Today's profit on pre-market calls Rs. 13,875/-

9/16/2013 03:27:00 pm Unknown No comments

Readers

Today, most of our sell calls triggered and gave us handsome profits while the markets did a U turn. We have 5/5 calls success today. Hope everyone enjoyed the calls. Please see the results below:

Nifty Outlook and Stocks to trade on Sep 16

9/16/2013 01:00:00 am Unknown No comments

Next week awaits plenty of news flow and it will be extremely difficult to take money from the market unless you are on the right side of the trade. Because of this reason, I am not recommending any weekly picks this week. Those who are holding to our last week picks, should hold SBI and Bharti Airtel with SL. SBI advance tax numbers from today are not great. Bharti Airtel looks strong. Tata Steel is not giving confusing signals, hence better to exit around 300 levels.

Monday - WPI Inflation will be announced at 12 PM IST.

Tuesday, Wednesday - FOMC Meeting

Friday - RBI Monetary policy review

On Monday and Friday, please do not hold any open intraday positions around the time the news is announced. Markets will be extremely volatile and SL will be hit in both directions.

Sector Trend: Reality, PSU Bank and Infrastructure are strong in charts. Pharma, Metal and IT are weakening.

Nifty was very choppy on Friday Sep 13. To resume upward journey, Nifty should cross 5900-30 range convincingly. As of now, this looks to be a significant resistance. Nifty will be positive above 5880 and negative below 5850. On the lower side, 5800-20 range is acting as a strong support which we have been tracking for the past two days. If this support is broken, then Nifty will slide to 5700 easily.

Intraday Calls for Sep 16

Opening Range Breakout Trading System - Will it work for any market in the world ?

9/15/2013 09:00:00 am Unknown 1 comment

Yes, Opening Range Breakout Trading system is used by many traders across the globe to reap fortunes from the market. The key is to have a clear system in place and follow it consistently.
For those who have not read the Opening Range Breakout Trading course, please click on the link below.

Opening Range Breakout Trading System

Based on the request from the readers in US, providing two examples of Opening Range Breakout Trading system applied to Boeing and Microsoft Stocks intraday on Sep 13.

Opening Range Breakout Trade on Boeing

Opening Range Breakout Trade on Microsoft

Getting the best out of Opening Range Breakout Trading System

9/15/2013 01:59:00 am Unknown 1 comment

Readers

Last week I wrote about trading the trend using Opening Range Breakout System considering 60 min as the range. Today, I will take few examples from my own trades on Sep 13 to give more insights into different scenarios.

Those who have not seen my earlier posts on these , please click on the below links to see the chapters from the Trading Course.

1. Opening Range Breakout System

2. How to Trade with the Trend

1. DLF - Where the stock reversed back into the opening range after the breakout. This example illustrates the importance of profit booking immediately after the breakout and keeping appropriate Stop losses. The same example shows how to trade a 60 min breakout.

2. BHEL - Where the breakout happened after 60 min. This trade again illustrates the fact that all rules of opening range breakout trading has to be followed to enter into a trade. The stock gave a false 30 min breakout, since the 5 min EMA never crossed above the opening range, technically, it was not possible to enter the trade. However 60 min , gave a good breakout trade.

3. Infosys - Excellent example of opening range breakout sell after consolidation. I have wrote about consolidation and its importance several times in this blog. Infosys gave a good consolidation and breakdown for intraday trading on Sep 13.

Please click on the links below to see my previous posts on consolidation.

Power of Consolidation - TCS

Will you trade spikes or consolidation ?

Bharti Airtel - Consolidation example.

Real Trade 1 - DLF

Real Trade 2 - BHEL

Real Trade 3 - Infosys

Did you make Rs. 21,000/- this week in the markets ?

9/13/2013 09:29:00 pm Unknown No comments

Markets were very volatile and range bound today. Still we ended in minimal profits. This week from pre-market calls readers made Rs. 21,825 !!. Hope everyone benefited from the calls.

Sep 13 - 1000/-
Sep 12 - 10,625/-
Sep 11 - 4750/-
Sep 10 - 5450/-

Total - 21,825/-

Summary of today's calls (Sep 13)

Nifty outlook and stocks to trade on Sep 13

9/13/2013 12:54:00 am Unknown 1 comment

We wrote about the level 5880 yesterday and going below this took Nifty down heavily. Nifty today touched below our critical level of 5825, however bounced back. Going below 5825 was definitely not a good sign. However the better than expected IIP data could save the markets from another fall tomorrow.

Going forward, day trading will be very tough for the next few days due to volatality and unpredictable moves. We will try our best to filter our calls and be profitable.

The resistance mentioned yesterday 5950-80 still holds good and will be a significant one for the markets to cross. This followed by 6000-6020 will be tough resistances.

For tomorrow's trading, exit all longs if market is below 5825. Nifty below 5800 will confirm the down move. On the upside, the next resistance is 5850-70. If this crossed, then Nifty could go up to 5900-20. Profit booking will come at 5950 levels. Please book profits whenever T1 is achieved and hold on to the second lot with stoploss revised to entry price.

Sector Trend: In hourly charts - IT and Auto has given sell signals. We were expecting this weakness for past 2-3 days and hence trying to short TCS. Today we had a good sell on TCS. However HCL is not showing this weakness.

Intraday Calls for Sep 13

Todays trades profit Rs. 10,625/-

9/12/2013 03:16:00 pm Unknown No comments

As written in the pre-market calls, Nifty going below 5880 resulted in extreme weakness for the market and significant profit booking was seen. Most of our sell calls gave good results today. We had 5 / 7 calls sucess.

Please see below.

Scrip	Action	Above	Below	T1	T2	SL	Target	Lot size	Profit
Tata Steel	Buy	315		317	320	310	T1	1000	2000
SBI	Buy	1700		1720	1740	1685	SL Hit	125	-1875
ICICI	Buy	980		985	990	970	X
Reliance	Buy	896		900	905	885	T1	250	1000
DLF	Buy	153		155	157	150	X
L&T	Buy	823		827	832	814	T1	375	1500
Hero Motor	Sell		2090	2080	2070	2112	X
Cipla	Sell		435	432	429	437	X
Tata Motors	Sell		334	332	330	337	SL Hit	1000	-3000
TCS	Sell		1978	1965	1950	1990	T2	250	7000
ONGC	Sell		288	286	284	290	X	1000	4000
									10625

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Categories

About Me

Monday, 30 September 2013

Sunday, 29 September 2013

Saturday, 28 September 2013

Friday, 27 September 2013

Intraday Calls for Sep 27

Thursday, 26 September 2013

Wednesday, 25 September 2013

Tuesday, 24 September 2013

Intraday calls for Sep 24

Monday, 23 September 2013

Sunday, 22 September 2013

Saturday, 21 September 2013

Friday, 20 September 2013

Intraday calls for Sep 20

Thursday, 19 September 2013

Wednesday, 18 September 2013

Intraday calls for Sep 18

Tuesday, 17 September 2013

Intraday calls for Sep 15

Monday, 16 September 2013

Intraday Calls for Sep 16

Sunday, 15 September 2013

Opening Range Breakout Trade on Boeing

Opening Range Breakout Trade on Microsoft

Real Trade 1 - DLF

Real Trade 2 - BHEL

Real Trade 3 - Infosys

Friday, 13 September 2013

Intraday Calls for Sep 13

Thursday, 12 September 2013

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